AUD/NZD tests key resistance after RBNZ ‘sell the fact’ hike and Australia GDP beat
AUD/NZD remains the cleanest expression of this week's South Pacific diverging narratives, and the pair's push toward the resistance zone marked on the daily chart is the standout technical story. The rally has been driven by the combination of Wednesday's stronger than expected Australian GDP print and a classic sell the fact reaction to the RBNZ's fully priced rate hike. Thursday's data flow reinforces rather than challenges that setup.
We've had some data this morning:
New Zealand's terms of trade shock, a far larger decline than expected, adds a fresh headwind for the kiwi on the trade side, while a firmer set of Australian PMI figures lends modest support to the Aussie leg. Neither release looks large enough on its own to force a break of the resistance level with the reaction at this ceiling now the key thing to watch.
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The RBNZ rate hike info and AUDF GDP beat are in yesterday's Asia wrao ICYMI:
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AUD/NZD has rallied into a resistance zone that has capped the pair before, and neither Thursday's soft New Zealand trade data nor firmer Australian PMI numbers look big enough to change that test.
Summary:
- AUD/NZD has rallied into a resistance zone on the daily chart, the same area that capped prior upside attempts, following Wednesday's RBNZ hike and Australian GDP beat.
- The move higher reflects a sell the fact reaction to the RBNZ's fully priced 25bp hike combined with a stronger than expected Australian Q2 GDP print.
- New Zealand's Q2 terms of trade index fell 9.0% on the previous quarter, far worse than the Reuters poll estimate for a 3.9% decline.
- The terms of trade deterioration was driven by import prices surging 13.8% against a 6.8% expected rise, even as export prices rose 3.5% in line with expectations and export volumes climbed 6.4%.
- Year on year, New Zealand's terms of trade fell 9.4%, a sharp reversal from the prior year's 12.3% increase.
- Australia's final Services PMI rose to 53.2 from 52.9, while the Composite PMI increased to 52.7 from 52.5, signalling firming private sector activity.
- Neither data set is viewed as a major market mover in isolation, with the AUD/NZD technical picture and this week's central bank and growth narrative doing most of the work.
AUD/NZD has pushed up into a key resistance zone on the daily chart, the same level that capped the pair's advance on prior occasions, as this week's combination of a stronger than expected Australian GDP print and a sell the fact reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate hike continues to drive the cross higher. The rally has been sharp and largely one directional since Wednesday, and the reaction at this ceiling is now the key technical question for the pair heading into the new week.
The background to the move remains largely unchanged from Wednesday. The RBNZ delivered a fully priced 25 basis point hike to 2.75%, its second consecutive increase, but the accompanying guidance was read as more gradual than markets had been positioning for, triggering a broad kiwi selloff even as the headline decision matched expectations. At the same time, Australian Q2 GDP surprised to the upside, reinforcing relative growth momentum in Australia's favour and giving AUD/NZD a second tailwind alongside the New Zealand dollar's own weakness.
Thursday's data flow has done little to alter that picture, though it adds some texture on both sides of the pair. New Zealand's Q2 terms of trade index fell 9.0% on the previous quarter, a far steeper decline than the 3.9% drop economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. The deterioration was driven by a 13.8% surge in import prices, roughly double the 6.8% rise expected, while export prices rose 3.5% in line with forecasts and export volumes increased 6.4% on the quarter. Year on year, the terms of trade measure fell 9.4%, a sharp swing from the 12.3% increase recorded a year earlier. The scale of the miss underlines a meaningful deterioration in New Zealand's external trade position, adding a fundamental headwind for the kiwi on top of the RBNZ driven pressure already in play.
On the Australian side, the final Services PMI for August rose to 53.2 from a preliminary 52.9, while the Composite PMI increased to 52.7 from 52.5, both consistent with firming private sector activity. The readings support the broader narrative of Australian economic resilience that has underpinned AUD strength this week, though the moves are incremental rather than dramatic and are unlikely to be a standalone driver for the currency.
Taken together, neither release looks large enough in isolation to force a decisive break of the resistance level now capping AUD/NZD. But with the underlying drivers, a hawkish action but dovish reaction from the RBNZ and a stronger Australian growth pulse, still firmly in place, the bias for the pair remains tilted toward eventually testing that ceiling again, making the price action around current levels the central thing to watch from here.
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The candle chart compresses the action for a bigger picture view:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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