Brent and WTI hit highest levels (resistance now?) since late July as Middle East war flares
The renewed exchange between Washington and Tehran has pushed both benchmarks to their highest levels since late July, though the price action remains two way rather than a clean breakout. Brent is running into what looks like resistance around current levels, a zone that also capped rallies back in early June and again around July 23, so bulls will want to see a decisive close above this area before reading too much into the latest strength. The larger than expected US crude draw adds a supportive fundamental layer alongside the geopolitical premium. However, commentary from traders suggests the market has increasingly priced in that workaround supply routes can offset near term disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, which may be capping the scale of the reaction. With OPEC+ expected to hold output policy steady for October, the near term price path looks likely to stay headline driven, tracking the ebb and flow of the conflict rather than a shift in the supply and demand balance itself.
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Earlier:
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Oil pushed to its best levels in over a month on renewed US Iran strikes, but it is now running into resistance that has capped rallies twice before this year.
Summary:
- Brent crude settled around 1% higher, WTI rose roughly 0.9%, with both benchmarks reaching their highest levels since around July 24.
- The US and Iran conflict is now in its seventh month, with Wednesday's strikes described as the most significant exchange since July, with the US targeting Iranian radar and mine laying capabilities and Iran retaliating against US positions.
- Chart action shows Brent running into what looks like resistance around current levels, a zone that also capped rallies in early June and again around July 23.
- Iran said it does not reject negotiations but wants the US to fulfil its commitments before Hormuz reopens, while a US source described the strikes as pre-emptive against an alleged plot targeting submarine cables.
- Trump said the strikes targeted an Iranian rocket and mine program, added that the renewed campaign will not continue for long and that prices will come down, but also said he is prepared to strike again.
- Shipping data showed only around four commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, well below the roughly 13 vessel ten day average, with two tankers disabled after striking sea mines.
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed around 17 million barrels transited Hormuz on Monday, which he called the largest volume since the war began, while Iraq has been increasing exports and shipments were set to climb further in September.
- US crude inventories fell by roughly 4.5 million barrels last week, a considerably larger draw than the circa 1.1 million barrel draw expected, according to the EIA, while gasoline saw a shallower than expected draw and distillates posted an unexpected build.
- OPEC+ is expected to hold its output policy unchanged for October at Sunday's meeting as the group finishes unwinding one layer of cuts and turns focus to 2027 quota talks.
- Russia carried out a heavy missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region overnight, according to grid operator Ukrenergo.
Brent crude settled around 1% higher on Wednesday, capping a volatile session driven by the most significant exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran in weeks, as the seven month old conflict showed fresh signs of escalation. Brent futures settled up close to 1%, near $95 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose roughly 0.9%, settling around $91. Both benchmarks swung between gains of around $2 a barrel and losses of about $1 during the session, with the intraday highs marking the strongest levels for both contracts since around July 24.
On the chart, Brent now looks to be running into resistance around these levels, a zone that has capped rallies on two prior occasions this year, first in early June and again around July 23. A decisive break above that area would be needed before the latest strength can be read as more than a bounce within the broader range that has defined price action since spring.
The latest exchange saw US forces strike Iran's southern coast, targeting radar and mine laying capabilities, with Iran retaliating against American positions across the region. Analysts described the strikes as a significant escalation following roughly a month of relative calm. Iran signalled it does not reject negotiations outright but wants the US to fulfil its commitments before it takes steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while a US source characterised the latest strikes as pre-emptive, targeting an alleged Iranian plot against submarine cables in the strait. President Trump said the action was a response to Iran attempting to build a rocket capable of dropping mines, and while he suggested the renewed campaign would not continue for long and that prices would eventually ease, he also said he remains prepared to strike again. Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry urged all parties to remain calm and return to negotiations.
Shipping data underscored the disruption, with only around four commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, well below the roughly 13 vessel average of the past ten days, and two oil tankers reported disabled after striking sea mines. Iran also added further vessels to a list it deems non-compliant and subject to fines or seizure. Even so, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright pushed back on the disruption narrative, claiming around 17 million barrels transited the strait on Monday, which he called the largest daily volume since the war began, while Iraq has been lifting exports with further gains expected in September as wide profit margins and Iranian tanker approvals encourage buyers.
On the fundamental side, US crude inventories fell by around 4.5 million barrels last week, a considerably larger draw than the roughly 1.1 million barrels expected, according to Energy Information Administration data, while gasoline stocks saw a shallower than anticipated draw and distillates posted a surprise build. OPEC+ is widely expected to leave its output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, as the group completes the unwinding of one layer of production cuts and shifts attention toward 2027 quota negotiations. Elsewhere, Russia carried out a heavy missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region overnight, according to grid operator Ukrenergo, adding to the broader backdrop of supply side risk facing the market.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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