Economic and event calendar in Asia 01 July 2026. China manufacturing PMI coming up, again

2026年7月1日最近のFX関連情報ニュース

On Tuesday we had official PMIs from China:

• China factory PMI beats forecast at 50.3 as AI-linked exports drive expansion
• China's domestic demand engine sputtering despite stronger headline PMI

Today we get the privately surveyed manufacturing PMI from Rating Dog/S&P Global. Rating Dog is the best name for an economic indicator I have ever heard of. Anyway, back to it.

The two sets of PMIs out of China each month routinely tell different stories. Knowing why saves you from reading a divergence as a data error.

The official one: NBS PMI

Compiled by China's National Bureau of Statistics, a government agency. It's the official read, and it leans toward the parts of the economy government policy actually touches.

• Sample: around 3,000 firms, tilted toward large and state-owned enterprises.
• Coverage: both manufacturing and non-manufacturing (construction, services), so it's the broader of the two.
• Release: last day of the month.
• Character: tends to be steadier, since it's weighted toward sectors cushioned by state support and infrastructure spending.

The private one: now RatingDog, formerly Caixin

This is the one that changed names. S&P Global has compiled the survey throughout and continues to do so; what changed is the sponsorship. Caixin Media held the naming rights for years, but in mid-2025 a Shenzhen credit-research firm called RatingDog bought the exclusive naming rights from S&P Global, and the index was rebranded the RatingDog China PMI from the August 2025 release onward. Same methodology, same survey, new name on the masthead. You'll likely still see it referred to informally as "the old Caixin" for a while as the market adjusts.

• Sample: smaller, around 500 firms, skewed toward SMEs and private-sector, export- and tech-oriented companies.
• Coverage: manufacturing and services only; no non-manufacturing or construction equivalent, and the services read explicitly excludes retail.
• Release: a few days after NBS, on the first business day of the month for manufacturing.
• Character: more volatile, since SMEs feel demand shifts, supply-chain wobbles and export conditions in real time.

Why they diverge

NBS skews toward state-owned, policy-supported industry. RatingDog skews toward private, market-facing, often export-exposed firms. When the two move in opposite directions, look at what's driving each survey's sample rather than treating one as "wrong." A weak NBS print with a firm RatingDog print, for instance, often points to private and export demand holding up while state-linked and domestic-policy sectors lag (or vice versa).

Reading them together

• NBS gives you the macro, policy-driven view of the economy.
• RatingDog (ex-Caixin) gives you the market-driven, private-sector view, and tends to be the more sensitive one to global trade conditions.

Used side by side, they're a decent cross-check on how much of any given month's China story is policy support versus organic private demand.

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Also on the data calendar is the Bank of Japan Tankan. There are tow of these also!

Japan's two Tankans: a guide

Same idea as the China PMIs: two surveys, same rough purpose, different scope and cadence. Reuters Tankan and the Bank of Japan's own Tankan get bundled together in the data calendar, but they're not interchangeable.

The official one: BoJ Tankan

Compiled and published by the Bank of Japan itself. This is the headline number markets actually move on.

• Sample: roughly 9,000 to 10,000 enterprises, spanning large, medium and small firms across manufacturing and non-manufacturing.
• Frequency: quarterly, released in early April, July, October and December.
• What it measures: a diffusion index, the percentage of respondents reporting conditions as "favourable" minus the percentage reporting "unfavourable," covering current conditions and firms' own forward outlook.
• Character: broad and comprehensive, but also backward-looking by the time it lands, since the survey window closes roughly two to three weeks before release. That lag has mattered lately: the most recent print was flagged by several economists as not fully capturing the Iran war's hit to energy costs and supply chains, since the survey period closed before the conflict escalated.

The interim one: Reuters Tankan

A private monthly survey, not affiliated with the BoJ, designed explicitly to track and anticipate the BoJ's quarterly number. It was originally called the Telerate Tankan before Reuters (now Thomson Reuters) acquired Telerate and put its own name on it; unlike the Caixin to RatingDog switch, there's no new rebrand here, it's been Reuters Tankan for years.

• Sample: a much smaller, fixed panel of leading Japanese companies, 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufacturers.
• Frequency: monthly, filling in the gaps between the BoJ's quarterly releases.
• What it measures: the same diffusion index methodology as the BoJ survey (good minus poor), which is why the two correlate closely.
• Character: skewed toward large, already-established companies, so it misses the SME layer the BoJ survey captures. That makes it a useful early read on big-company sentiment, but not a perfect substitute for the full Tankan.

Why they diverge

The core difference is sample composition and timing rather than methodology. Reuters Tankan is large-company-only and monthly, so it can move ahead of the BoJ print, picking up shifts in sentiment among major exporters and manufacturers before the broader survey catches them. The BoJ Tankan adds in the small and mid-sized firm layer and is the one the BoJ, government and market actually treat as the authoritative quarterly read, but its survey window means it can be stale on fast-moving shocks by the time it's published.

Reading them together

• Reuters Tankan is your monthly pulse check on large-company sentiment, useful for spotting a turn before the BoJ confirms it.
• BoJ Tankan is the quarterly, full-economy version: broader, more authoritative, but with a built-in lag against anything that breaks late in the survey window.

In practice, Reuters Tankan is best used as a leading indicator into the BoJ print, and the BoJ Tankan as the print itself, the one that actually moves yen positioning and BoJ policy expectations.

I am not sure if anyone cares much about China PMIs and BoJ Tankan given later on Wednesday we get new Fed Chair Warsh speaking. Like Powell, we'll all be waiting! Although Warsh says he doesn't do forward guidance so I don't know what he'll be talking about. I'll get a preview posted separately.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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