Kickstart September 1: The USD is stronger as yields move higher.
The USD is higher against all the major currencies as September trading gets underway. US yields are mostly higher, crude oil is extending its gains, and gold and silver are moving lower. In the morning Kickstart video, I take a look at the technical picture for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, outlining the levels that define the bias, the risk and the next targets.
The USD’s gains against the major currencies are:
EUR: +0.19%
JPY: +0.21%
GBP: +0.09%
CHF: +0.22%
CAD: +0.17%
AUD: +0.28%
NZD: +0.30%
The USD is the strongest of the major currencies, while the NZD is the weakest. The GBP is holding up the best against the greenback.
The low-to-high trading ranges are:
EURUSD: 1.1589 to 1.1624 — 35 pips.
USDJPY: 159.65 to 160.14 — 49 pips.
GBPUSD: 1.3530 to 1.3559 — 29 pips.
USDCHF: 0.8079 to 0.8108 — 29 pips.
USDCAD: 1.3846 to 1.3882 — 36 pips.
AUDUSD: 0.7140 to 0.7180 — 40 pips.
NZDUSD: 0.5893 to 0.5928 — 35 pips.
In the US debt market, yields are higher beyond the 2-year maturity, extending the pressure on longer-dated bonds following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message on Friday. Markets continue to price in roughly a 65% chance of a September rate hike.
2-year yield: 4.348%, down 0.2 basis points.
5-year yield: 4.5214%, up 1.44 basis points.
10-year yield: 4.780%, up 2.2 basis points.
30-year yield: 5.2719%, up 2.29 basis points.
On the economic front, euro area preliminary inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August from 2.9% in July, matching expectations. Energy remains the main driver, with annual energy inflation rising to 14.3% from 10.3%.
There was better news underneath the headline. Core inflation eased to 2.4%, below the 2.5% estimate and prior reading, while services inflation slowed to 3.0% from 3.3%. That leaves the ECB balancing higher energy costs against some moderation in underlying price pressures. The report keeps a September hike in focus, but the softer core reading gives policymakers a reason to be measured about what follows.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is hosting G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Asheville, North Carolina, with the meetings wrapping up today. For currency traders, Japan, interest rates and Iran remain the key topics.
Bessent said he expects Japan to take steps that would lead to a stronger yen, adding to expectations for a September Bank of Japan rate hike. US and Japanese officials also reaffirmed their commitment to coordinating on currency moves. However, Bessent characterized recent yen moves as relatively contained, stopping short of signaling an immediate need for another intervention.
That leaves competing forces for the USDJPY. Expectations for higher Japanese rates could support the yen, but higher US yields are supporting the dollar. For now, the USDJPY is trading near 160.06, up 0.21% on the day.
Bessent also said yesterday that the Fed traditionally does not raise rates into a supply shock unless it feeds into broader inflation. That offers an argument for holding steady despite higher oil prices, although the decision rests with Warsh and the full FOMC.
On trade, Politico reported that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada could face additional tariffs, along with import bans or prohibitions similar to measures Canada previously imposed on the US. Greer said he would ideally leave energy alone and added that no negotiations are currently underway. The comments add another source of uncertainty for the CAD, with USDCAD higher despite rising oil prices.
Bessent is also pushing for tighter sanctions on Iran under Operation Economic Outcast. For markets, the focus remains on oil and the risk that prolonged disruption keeps inflation elevated and complicates the outlook for central banks.
US stock futures are pointing to lower levels at the open with the Nasdaq index the weakest. Higher US treasury yields also mean higher borrowing cost for AI companies looking to borrrow to finance growth:
- Dow -348 points
- S&P -52 points
- Nasdaq 351 points
Across commodities and crypto:
Crude oil: Up $1.77, or 2.08%, at $87.57.
Gold: Down $63.16, or 1.42%, at $4,384.38.
Silver: Down 2.21% at $65.02.
Bitcoin: Down $838 at $78,129.
With the dollar higher and yields mostly moving up, can dollar buyers build on those moves? The video takes a closer look at the levels that matter for EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, and what buyers need to do to keep control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
FX初心者には必須 無料のうちにGET！
