Heads up: RBA monetary policy decision at the bottom of the hour

最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

The softer Australian inflation data at the end of July was pretty much the dealbreaker ahead of today’s decision. As things stand, traders are not expecting any changes to the cash rate but all eyes will be on what the statement has to offer.

Will there be any hawkish indications still or perhaps some signs of dissent? That will certainly keep things interesting as the threshold for any hawkish surprises isn’t exactly high.

Traders are pricing in ~97% odds of no change today but also ~82% odds of no change in September next. The November and December meetings are more of a coin flip with there only being ~14 bps of rate hikes priced in by year-end for now.

That being said, the data will have to corroborate with any hawkish leanings that we will see. So, there’s that to consider as well.

The cash rate is expected to be held steady at 4.35% today with much of the forward guidance from before expected to remain too. In its previous statement, the RBA said that:

“Following the three increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the year, financial conditions are now tighter than they were, and there are signs that the economy is slowing as expected. But inflation is still too high and the Board judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate target unchanged while it assesses the response to previous interest rate rises and the impact of the oil supply disruption.

The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment. It will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate target further if required."

Any changes there will be heavily scrutinised as such, alongside any indication that the decision today being unanimous or not. So, just be on the look out for that.

Here are some previews as posted by Eamonn earlier:

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

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