The Indian Rupee risks falling into new record lows amid the renewed US-Iran conflict and elevated oil prices
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
USD:
The US dollar has been under pressure in the past few days following the surprisingly soft US inflation figures. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations with traders scaling back significantly the probabilities for a rate hike in July which is now comfortably off the table.
The Fed is now expected to raise interest rates in October at the earliest with a fully priced hike in December. The US-Iran crisis in the background is keeping inflation risks skewed to the upside, so the downside in the greenback should remain limited without a clear de-escalation.
INR:
On the INR side, the Rupee has been under pressure after the US-Iran crisis erupted and oil prices started to surge.
This pressure is likely to persist the longer the conflict drags on. The Rupee will need a clear de-escalation to trigger a relief rally and erase the recent losses.
In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing the USD/INR pair into new highs.
USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see that USDINRbroke above the key resistance zone around the 96.10 level and extended the buyers increase the bullish bets targeting new record highs. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline and the old resistance-turned-support to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to open the door for a drop into the 94.00 handle next.
USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we have another trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to extend the pullback into the 96.10 support next.
USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will have better risk to reward setups around the trendline to keep targeting new highs, while the sellers will need downside breaks to push into new lows.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, but the focus will remain on US-Iran headlines.
See also GBP/USD technical analysis for beginners from today (including video)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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