What are the main events for today?
EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the final Spanish CPI and the Eurozone Industrial Production. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.
The surprisingly soft US CPI has given the markets a breather and we've seen some positive risk sentiment as Fed tightening risk eased a bit. Unfortunately, due to the US-Iran crisis in the background, the reaction to the CPI wasn't as strong as it would have been without the tensions in the Middle East.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we have the US PPI report and the Bank of Canada rate decision. The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 6.2% vs 6.5% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.0% vs 1.1% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 5.1% vs 4.9% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.4% prior. This is unlikely to be a game changer as the Fed placed more focus on yesterday's data.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. The central bank will also release the updated macroeconomic forecasts at this meeting. BoC members have been repeating that so far there's been limited evidence of the energy shock spreading broadly through consumer prices as underlying inflation measures have been hovering around the 2% mid-band target.
After the June decision, the BoC said it would look through the war-related increase in inflation but would act if higher energy prices produced persistent and generalized price pressures. The BoC also added that significant new US trade restrictions could require further rate cuts. Such guidance is unlikely to change today.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 12:45 GMT/08:45 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)
- 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed Chair Warsh testimony (neutral - voter)
- 16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (hawkish - voter)
- 17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Cook (neutral - voter)
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