India’s annual inflation rate breaches the RBI target for the first time in 16 months rising to 4.38% in June
- June CPI Y/Y 4.38% vs 4.30% expected
- Prior 3.93%
- Full report here
India's annual inflation rate rose to 4.38% in June, breaching the central bank's medium-term target for the first time in 16 months, driven primarily by rising food and fuel costs amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a delayed monsoon.
The inflation print came in higher than the 4.3% forecast and marked a significant acceleration from the 3.93% recorded in May, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
The latest reading puts renewed pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has a mandate to keep headline inflation at 4% within a tolerance band of 2% to 6%. The central bank had held its key repo rate steady at 5.25% at its last policy meeting, but the faster-than-expected rise in prices may prompt policymakers to adopt a more hawkish stance in upcoming meetings. Upward risks to the inflation outlook remain as ongoing hostilities in the Middle East threaten further energy price shocks
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