Recap – Oil jumps 7% as Trump threatens bigger Iran strikes, eyes Kharg Island
The renewed exchange of strikes between the US and Iran has reintroduced a sharp geopolitical risk premium into crude pricing after weeks of relative calm under the June 17 ceasefire framework. Traders are now pricing in the possibility of a direct hit on Kharg Island, which would strike at Iran's physical capacity to export oil rather than just at shipping lanes, a materially larger escalation than tanker-adjacent strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's stated intent to close the Strait and double its retaliatory targeting adds a second, compounding risk vector tied to the roughly one-fifth of global oil supply that transits the waterway. With Trump signalling further strikes are likely and the ceasefire's durability now openly in question, energy markets are likely to stay bid to a war-risk premium until there is clarity on whether Wednesday's exchange was a one-off flare-up or the start of a renewed campaign.
Summary:
- US Central Command launched fresh strikes on Iran Wednesday aimed at keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping
- Iran struck US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, prompting the US retaliation
- The flare-up began with Iran's Tuesday attacks on three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declared the June 17 ceasefire "over," saying he no longer expects any deal with Iran to hold
- Trump said the US may strike again Wednesday night, possibly targeting Kharg Island and reinstating a blockade
- US Defense Secretary Hegseth cancelled a planned visit to Israel with no reason given
- Iran signalled it would close the Strait of Hormuz and double its retaliatory targets if the US strikes again
Oil prices jumped roughly 7% on Wednesday as the US and Iran traded fresh military strikes, deepening a crisis that has unravelled a shaky ceasefire and put the Strait of Hormuz, and now potentially Iran's oil export infrastructure, back at the centre of global energy risk.
US Central Command said it had launched additional strikes on Iran to protect freedom of navigation through the Strait, hours after President Trump declared that the interim agreement ending the war was "over." The exchange began with Iranian strikes on Tuesday against three cargo ships transiting the Strait, escalating Wednesday when Iran hit US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, triggering the US response.
Speaking in Ankara at a NATO summit, Trump said he doubted any deal with Iran would hold, calling Tehran "very dishonourable," though he stopped short of predicting a full return to war. He went further as the day developed, saying the US would likely strike again Wednesday night, potentially in a large-scale operation, and floated retaking Kharg Island, Iran's principal crude export terminal, along with reimposing a naval blockade. US Defense Secretary Hegseth's cancellation of a planned Israel visit, with no explanation given, added to the sense of a rapidly shifting situation.
Iran, for its part, signalled it would respond to any further US action by closing the Strait of Hormuz entirely and striking twice as many targets as before, a threat that traders treated cautiously given Tehran's history of using such rhetoric to preserve negotiating leverage rather than follow through immediately.
The stakes are unusually high given the Strait's role as a conduit for roughly a fifth of global oil supply, but the prospect of a strike on Kharg Island marks a potential escalation beyond shipping-lane skirmishes toward direct interference with Iranian export capacity. The war originally began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, and the ceasefire memorandum signed June 17 had offered a fragile basis for a longer-term settlement. Wednesday's exchange leaves that settlement in serious doubt, with markets now watching for whether the US follows through on further strikes and how Iran responds if it does.
This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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