USD/JPY rises back into the highest levels since 1986 amid lack of bearish drivers

2026年7月7日最近のFX関連情報Forex

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar came under some pressure in the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 25%, while the probabilities for a move in September dropped to 57%.

As mentioned previously, given the Fed’s focus on inflation, the US CPI will likely be more important. For now, the US dollar might remain rangebound until we get to the main event.

This week, we don’t have much on the agenda. The only meaningful catalyst could be the FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow. This is almost never a market moving report but given the limited forward guidance from Fed Chair Warsh, traders will want to see if there’s any further signal in the minutes on the next policy move.

JPY:

On the JPY side, we saw a sharp appreciation last Thursday in what looked like stealth intervention. The culprit was most likely just speculators unwinding their positions for fear of an actual intervention as Japanese officials said that they will stop signalling intervention risks in advance and start focusing on targeting speculators with stealth interventions.

The JPY has already erased all the gains yesterday and it’s now trading again around the 162.00 handle. In the short-term, the threat of stealth interventions might keep the JPY supported, but the main trend remains skewed to the upside amid slow BoJ tightening and muted inflation developments.

The focus has now shifted to the US CPI report which could give the US dollar a boost in case the data surprises to the upside or add further pressure on it if the data disappoints.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY bounced from the 160.50 support zone and recovered most of the losses experienced in the final part of last week. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can see the momentum accelerated once the price broke above the minor resistance zone around the 161.50 level as the buyers increase the bullish bets into new cycle highs. The resistance should now act as support. If the price pulls back into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the support to pile in for a drop back into the 160.50 level.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the pullback into the support. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new cycle highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.