USD/JPY consolidates at a key support after yesterday’s suspected stealth intervention
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
USD:
The US dollar has weakened across the board yesterday following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike dropped to 17% vs 30% before the NFP release, and the probabilities for a move in September stand now around 50%.
As mentioned previously, given the Fed’s focus on inflation, the US CPI will likely be more important. For now, the US dollar will likely stay under pressure until the US CPI release due on July 14th.
JPY:
On the JPY side, the currency jumped higher yesterday early in the European session on a suspected intervention. The culprit was most likely just speculators unwinding their positions for fear of an actual intervention as Japanese officials said that they will stop signalling intervention risks in advance and start focusing on targeting speculators with stealth interventions.
In the short-term, the threat of interventions without early warnings might keep the JPY supported, especially after the mixed NFP report. The focus has now shifted to the US CPI report which could give the US dollar a boost in case the data surprises to the upside or add further pressure on it if the data disappoints.
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY tumbled yesterday all the way back to the 160.50 support zone. This is where we can expect the buyers to step back in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the major upward trendline around the 158.00 handle.
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price action became rangebound at the support as the dip-buyers started to pile in. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe as the buyers will continue to step in around the support to target new highs, while the sellers will wait for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action with the 161.50 zone now acting as resistance. The market participants will likely continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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