Korea exports surge on AI chip boom as shares slide on profit-taking

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The scale of the export beat, growth well above the strongest forecasts on the board, reinforces the structural AI-chip demand story underpinning Korean equities, even as the KOSPI's pullback on the day looks like classic profit-taking after an exceptional quarter rather than any change in the fundamental picture. Foreign investors sold a record amount of stock over the first half yet still ended up holding a larger share of the market by value, suggesting there's scope for further rotation out of chip-heavy names without threatening the broader uptrend. The won's slide and the back-up in short and long-dated bond yields point to some broader risk-off positioning accompanying the equity selloff, worth watching alongside the currency's sensitivity to any further chip-sector volatility. With the trade surplus running well ahead of last year's full-year total already, the external accounts backdrop remains a clear support for the won longer term even if today's price action moved the other way.

--- South Korean exports grew at their fastest pace in decades on record chip sales, even as the KOSPI fell around 2% on profit-taking.

Summary:

  • South Korean shares fell by around 2% on Wednesday as foreign investors booked profits, even as exports beat forecasts on record chip sales
  • The KOSPI had risen by roughly two-thirds in the June quarter, its strongest quarterly gain since 1998
  • Foreign investors were record net sellers of Korean shares over the first half of the year, though their overall share of the market by value still rose
  • Chipmakers led the market lower, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both down by several percent, alongside declines in battery, auto and biotech names
  • The Korean won weakened against the dollar, while short and long-dated Korean bond yields both rose
  • South Korea's exports surged by well over 70% year-on-year in June, their strongest annual growth rate since the late 1970s and comfortably ahead of all forecasts
  • Semiconductor exports roughly tripled from a year earlier, pushing South Korea past the $100 billion monthly export mark, a level reached by only a handful of major economies
  • Exports to China and the US posted particularly strong gains, while shipments to the Middle East declined
  • The country's monthly trade surplus hit a record, taking the first-half surplus well above the total for all of last year
  • A separate survey showed factory activity expanded for a seventh straight month in June, though at a slower pace amid softer export demand

South Korean exports expanded at their fastest pace in nearly half a century last month, comfortably beating forecasts as a surge in semiconductor sales tied to the global AI investment boom propelled the country's trade figures to record levels. The strong export data landed alongside a sharp pullback in South Korean equities, as investors used the moment to lock in gains after an exceptional quarter.

Exports rose 70.9% in June y/y, he biggest year-on-year increase since October 1978,

  • from 53.4% in May
  • well ahead of every forecast in a Reuters poll of economists

Semiconductor exports roughly tripled year-on-year, pushing South Korea's monthly export value above the $100 billion mark for the first time, a threshold reached by only a small number of major economies. Computer sales also surged as major technology firms ramped up AI-related investment, while steel exports returned to growth after more than a year of declines, supported by data centre construction, and petroleum product exports rose on elevated oil prices. Shipments to China and the United States both posted particularly strong gains, while exports to the European Union also rose. Exports to the Middle East were the notable exception, slipping on the back of the region's ongoing disruption.

Imports also accelerated sharply, rising at their fastest pace in years, but export strength outpaced that growth by a wide enough margin to push the monthly trade balance to a record surplus. That took the country's cumulative trade surplus for the first half of the year to a level already well above the total recorded for all of last year.

Despite the strength in the underlying trade data, South Korean shares fell sharply on the day, with the benchmark KOSPI dropping by around 2% as foreign investors sold shares to book profits following a rally of roughly two-thirds over the June quarter, the index's best quarterly performance since the late 1990s. Foreign investors sold a record amount of Korean equities over the first half of the year in local currency terms, yet their overall share of the market by value still increased meaningfully, pointing to substantial prior gains and leaving room for continued profit-taking, particularly in chip stocks. Index heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both declined by several percent, with battery, auto and biotech names also lower, even as advancing issues outnumbered decliners across the broader market. The Korean won weakened against the dollar, while short and long-dated government bond yields both rose, pointing to some broader risk-off positioning alongside the equity pullback.

A separate survey released the same day showed South Korean factory activity expanded for a seventh consecutive month in June, though the pace of growth slowed from May amid softer export demand, a note of caution alongside an otherwise blockbuster set of trade figures.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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