The US freight market has suddenly gone into high gear
Here is a theme you don't hear much about but could be a very good sign of a inflection in the US economy. Flatbed data is flashing a cycle turn.
Late last year, we were writing about the ongoing recession in freight but it's steadily and now quickly turned. Flatbed spot prices are up +41% year-to-date on 24 straight weeks of weekly gains.
CIBC writes:
Spot flatbed rates in the U.S. have hit historic highs in recent weeks, reflecting sustained demand in construction, manufacturing, and industrial freight markets, combined with the supply-driven tailwinds benefitting the broader trucking space. For instance, the AI data centre buildout is a key end market that has experienced exceptional growth
The data only goes back to 2014 so don't get too excited about 'all time' but it's certainly positive.
And don't mistake flatbed for all trucking. This part of the market largely serves construction, manufacturing and industrial while vans and reefers service the rest. What's happening here is the broadening of AI capex spending on datacenters combined with some cyclical improvement in industry after a brutal few years.
Notably though, van prices are up 20% YTD and reefer up 10%, so it's more than just AI capex.
We get the latest ISM manufacturing number this week and the consensus is 54.0, unchanged from last month but there are signs of a pickup and it's worth betting on an upside surprise.
I think there's an infatuation with the idea of Kevin Warsh as a dove but him and everyone else at the Fed is likely starting to see data of a cyclical uplift in multiple parts of the US economy and he's quickly realizing that rate cuts won't be on the table for a long time.
There's also a big caveat on the freight data as it might be amplified by supply issues. The Trump administration went on a heavy crackdown against immigrant drivers by pulling visas and doing language tests. That said, the van, reefer and flatbed all pull from the same driver pool so there has to be some cyclical uplift there given the relative numbers for flatbed.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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