Oil settles down circa 2% on weak demand outlook and hefty US crude build
The pullback marks a clean break from the six session rally that had carried both benchmarks higher into Wednesday, with a hefty build in US crude stocks doing more to move price than any single geopolitical headline. Prices did claw back from a much steeper intraday drop of over 3.5% after the Houthi attack on Aramco's Jazan refinery, a reminder that supply risk premium has not vanished even as demand concerns dominate the tape. Diesel cracks pushing to a record high alongside falling crude prices points to a market that is increasingly differentiating between crude oversupply and product side tightness. With Hormuz traffic estimates still wildly inconsistent between officials and shipping data, expect continued two way volatility until a single clear narrative on strait access takes hold.
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Earlier:
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Oil broke its rally on demand worries and a big inventory build, even as the Houthis, Hormuz and Russian refinery outages kept supply risk very much alive.
Summary:
- Brent and WTI both settled down circa 2%, snapping a six session winning streak, after earlier session losses of more than 3.5%
- WTI traded roughly between $80 and $83 a barrel, Brent roughly between $86 and $89
- US commercial crude inventories posted their largest weekly build (here, and early heads up to this here) since January 2023, rising by around 17 million barrels to roughly 424 million, their highest level since early June
- OPEC and the IEA both cut 2026 demand growth forecasts, OPEC to around 580,000 bpd and the IEA to a contraction of roughly 1.6 million bpd
- Yemen's Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery with two drones, sending diesel cracks to a record high
- Iran and the US continued to make competing claims over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping data showing vessel crossings near three week lows against a pre war average of 125 to 140 vessels a day
Oil settled down circa 2% on Thursday, reversing course after a six session rally, as investors focused on signs of weaker global demand and a sizeable build in US crude inventories that outweighed a fresh supply scare in the Gulf.
Both benchmarks were down considerably more earlier in the session, falling over 3.5% at one point, before paring losses following reports that Yemen's Houthi rebels had targeted a Saudi Aramco refinery with drones, a headline that briefly reignited concerns over further supply disruption in an already tight market. Brent ultimately finished around $87 a barrel, while WTI closed near $81, trading roughly between $80 and $83 across the session, with Brent ranging roughly between $86 and $89.
The bigger driver was inventory data. The US Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude stocks posted their largest weekly gain since January 2023, rising by roughly 17 million barrels to around 424 million, their highest level since early June, as exports slumped. That build landed alongside fresh demand downgrades from both major forecasters, with OPEC trimming its 2026 demand growth estimate to around 580,000 bpd and the International Energy Agency now projecting a contraction of roughly 1.6 million bpd in consumption this year, wider than the 1 million bpd contraction it had forecast just a month earlier, citing higher prices and restricted supply tied to the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The Houthi strike on Aramco's Jazan refinery, a facility with capacity to produce around 250,000 bpd of ultra low sulfur diesel, pushed diesel cracks to a record high even as crude itself fell, underlining a growing split between crude and product market dynamics. A Houthi military source said the attack was retaliation for alleged Saudi violations of Yemeni airspace and sovereignty in Saada and Hajjah provinces, though Saudi Arabia had not commented on the report at time of writing.
Competing claims over the Strait of Hormuz continued to muddy the picture. Iran's Basij paramilitary chief said the strait remained under Iran's control and management, a day after President Trump claimed the US had total control of the waterway. A senior Iranian source said talks to revive June's interim deal and set a timeline for implementation have made no progress, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Washington could maintain its blockade on Iranian ports indefinitely. Estimates of actual flow through the strait remain sharply inconsistent, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright citing around 9 million bpd moving through weekly even as shipping data showed vessel crossings, excluding container ships, falling to just five on Wednesday, their lowest in three weeks and a fraction of the 125 to 140 vessels that transited daily before the war.
Adding to the tightness elsewhere, Russia's seaborne oil product exports fell sharply in July after Ukrainian drone strikes forced unplanned maintenance at several domestic refineries. A refinery in the Russian city of Orsk, hit by a drone strike earlier this week, has been forced offline entirely, with regional officials saying repairs could take up to six months.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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