USD/JPY flirts with a key upside breakout as yen’s intervention-led gains continue to fade

2026年5月14日最近のFX関連情報Forex

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar regained some ground this week as US and Iran rejected the respective war-ending proposals and US inflation data came out higher than expected. Overall, the market remains rangebound as traders continue to wait for new developments before picking a direction.

Looking ahead, the Fed is slowly abandoning the easing bias with more and more policymakers talking about the need of keeping all options on the table and some explicitly bringing up rate hikes.

The reopening of the Strait could weigh on the greenback in the short-term as oil prices will likely fall quickly and rate cut bets will increase on easing inflation worries.

After that though, the focus will quickly turn back to the Fed and the economic data. With the end of the war, the increase in economic activity could keep inflation higher for longer and eventually even require rate hikes to bring it sustainably back to the 2% target that the Fed has been missing since 2021.

There’s also another scenario where the Strait remains closed for longer and oil prices stay elevated, with the risk that the Fed turns hawkish anyway and gives the greenback a strong boost given the bearish positioning on the dollar.

JPY:

On the JPY side, nothing has changed fundamentally. Japanese officials have been intervening in the FX market, but yen sellers have been quick in fading the moves due to the persistently negative macro backdrop.

The BoJ recently left interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected but the highlight of the decision weren’t the three dissenters voting for a rate hike, but Governor Ueda adopting a less hawkish stance.

In fact, he noted that they want to take a little bit more time in gauging how the Middle East situation would affect Japan’s economy and acknowledged that underlying inflation is currently a bit below the 2% target.

He added that they expect underlying inflation to be around 2% from second half of 2026 but admitted that he doesn’t know how many months it would take to gauge timing of their next rate hike. This is going to keep weighing on the Japanese yen despite the interventions. All in all, the bias for the Japanese Yen remains bearish.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is now trading at the key 158.00 resistance zone. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 162.00 handle next.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add as the buyers will look for a break above the resistance or another bounce around the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will need a break below the trendline to pile in for a pullback into the 156.50 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.