Hormuz closure drives OPEC to slash demand outlook as OPEC+ output falls 1.74 million bpd
OPEC has cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million bpd from 1.38 million bpd, citing the Iran war, while OPEC+ output fell 1.74 million bpd in April on the Hormuz closure.
News out overnight, ICYMI.
Summary:
- OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million bpd from 1.38 million bpd, citing the impact of the Iran war, according to the group's latest monthly report
- The Q2 2026 demand estimate was cut by a further 500,000 bpd to 104.57 million bpd, following an equivalent reduction in last month's report
- OPEC raised its 2027 demand growth forecast by 200,000 bpd to 1.54 million bpd, expecting a rebound in consumption after the current shock subsides
- OPEC+ crude output fell 1.74 million bpd in April to 33.19 million bpd, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz prevented the group from delivering planned output increases
- The April production figure includes the UAE, which formally left OPEC on May 1
OPEC has cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, blaming the economic fallout from the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit routes.
The producer group now expects world oil demand to grow by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026, down from its previous estimate of 1.38 million bpd, a reduction of 210,000 bpd. The revision puts OPEC broadly in line with other major forecasters, including the International Energy Agency, which also revised down its demand outlook on Wednesday. OPEC sees a smaller overall hit to consumption than the IEA, however, and expects demand to recover more strongly, lifting its 2027 growth forecast by 200,000 bpd to 1.54 million bpd.
The war has shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off millions of barrels of Middle East output and sending fuel prices sharply higher. Governments have begun taking steps to manage supply disruptions, while consumers and businesses are absorbing the cost of surging energy prices. OPEC left its global economic growth projections unchanged, citing continued resilience in the broader economy despite the geopolitical strain.
The demand-side revisions compound a significant supply shock. OPEC+ crude output dropped 1.74 million bpd in April to an average of 33.19 million bpd, according to secondary sources the group uses to track production. The alliance had agreed to begin unwinding output cuts from April, but the Hormuz closure has made it impossible to follow through on that plan. The April data still includes the UAE, which departed the organisation on May 1.
The Q2 demand estimate has now been cut by a cumulative 1 million bpd across two consecutive monthly reports, underscoring the scale and speed at which the conflict is reshaping the near-term demand picture. Whether OPEC's more optimistic 2027 assumptions prove well-founded will depend largely on how long the war and its disruptions persist.
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OPEC's downward revision to 2026 demand growth, combined with a 1.74 million bpd drop in OPEC+ output in April, paints a picture of simultaneous demand destruction and supply disruption, an unusual and deeply uncertain combination for price formation. The Hormuz closure has effectively removed the group's ability to execute its planned output increases, tightening near-term supply even as demand weakens. The Q2 demand figure, now revised down a cumulative 1 million bpd over two consecutive monthly reports, suggests the market is absorbing a more severe shock than initially estimated. OPEC's rosier 2027 demand outlook implies the group expects a resolution to the conflict, but that assumption is untested and could be revised sharply if the war drags on.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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