investingLive Americas FX news wrap 13 May: PPI shocks markets, stocks recover

2026年5月14日最近のFX関連情報ニュース

The April 2026 PPI report came in much hotter than expected and is adding to concerns that inflation pressures are becoming more entrenched. Headline PPI rose 1.4% month-over-month versus 0.5% expected, while the year-over-year rate accelerated to 6.0% from 4.3% previously. Core producer prices excluding food and energy climbed 1.0% on the month — the strongest pace since March 2022 — pushing the annual rate to 5.2%.

The inflation pressure was broad-based, with services prices surging 2.5%, while the closely watched PPI ex food, energy, and trade also moved higher to 4.4% year-over-year. Combined with yesterday’s CPI data, the report points to a stronger PCE inflation reading ahead, keeping pressure on the Fed at a time when markets had hoped inflation was stabilizing. Not so fast.

Inflation expectations are beginning to edge higher as well, with 5-year expectations rising to 2.7% from a more normal 2.2%. Markets are now pricing in a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike in April, leaving incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh facing a difficult backdrop. With inflation moving higher again, rate cuts are no longer part of the near-term discussion, despite continued pressure from President Trump for easier monetary policy.

For the Fed, the combination of sticky services inflation, elevated oil prices, and rising inflation expectations increases the risk that inflation remains higher for longer.

Treasury yields moved higher after the release, with the 2-year yield moving back above 4.0% and the 10-year yield pushing toward 4.50%.Although yields moved back off those key levels a bit, they still remain elevated.

Looking at the yield curve:

2 year yield 3.98%,
10 year yield 4.470%
30 year yield 51035%

Those levels are all important proxies, that will be a barometer for rates in the short term.

Equity markets soon after the release, reversed early pre-market gains but they reversed again, pushing both the S&P and the Nasdaq to new record closes on the day. The Dow could not keep up with the upside momentum, and closed the day lower.

A snapshot of the major indices shows:

Dow industrial average -68.01. or -0.14% at 49697.96
S&P index rose 43.29 points or +0.58% at 744-4426
NASDAQ index rose 314.14 points or 1.20% at 26402.34

The US dollar is closing mostly higher but off the highest levels in reaction to yields backing off modestly.

Versus the USD, the only currency to move higher vs the USD was the AUD which rose by 0.23% vs the greenback. The others fell:

EUR -0.22%
JPY -0.16%
GBP -0.10%
CHF -0.14%
CAD _0.07%
NZD -0.27%%

Fed' Collins spoke today and while she still expressed hope for additional rate cuts later this year, the broader message focused on persistent inflation risks, the possibility of renewed rate hikes, and the need to keep policy restrictive for an extended period. Her concern that inflation may not cool meaningfully until 2027, combined with warnings that a prolonged Middle East conflict could worsen inflation pressures while slowing growth, suggests the Fed remains highly cautious about easing policy too quickly.

Fed's Kashkari also spoke and I would characterize his comments as having a modest hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation remains too high and warning the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created major uncertainty for the inflation outlook. He stressed the Fed must stay committed to its 2% target and not “move the goalposts.” Kashkari said he had been gaining confidence inflation was moving lower before the Iran conflict, but the supply shock has now upended the outlook and could keep inflation pressures elevated for months even if the Strait reopens quickly.

On the economy, he described the labor market as “lukewarm” but still holding up reasonably well, while also questioning how much Fed rate decisions directly affect mortgage rates.

In other Fed news, it is official - Kevin Warsh will be the next Fed Chair when Powells reign ends on May 15. Warsh will take over with inflation hi, employment leaning more toward strong (although precariously so), yields high and the market discounting more of a hike in April vs no change. That is not what Pres. Trump would like to see of course.

No matter the pressure from the President, Warsh has experience on the Federal Reserve Board, and knows that he holds just one vote. He may have more sway then in his past time as a FOMC governor, but it still takes a majority of the 12 votes to change policy.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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2026年5月14日最近のFX関連情報ニュース

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