investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump has seen the NFP number and he is happy

2026年5月7日最近のFX関連情報ニュース

• Trump advisers fear political price of Iran war fuel costs ahead of midterms
• China loan curbs, yuan surge and holiday spending in focus as Beijing juggles pressures
• ICYMI - Saudi base ban forced Trump to pause Strait of Hormuz shipping operation
• Australian March 2026 trade balance -1840mn (expected 4.250mn suprlus)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8487 (vs. estimate at 6.8087)
• Iran to deliver response Thursday to U.S. war-ending proposal via Pakistan mediators
• Japan's Mimura yen verbal intervention again - says closely watching FX
• BOJ March minutes says rates will be raised in line with improvements in economy, prices
• EU parliament negotiator says trade deal work is not yet done as May talks loom
• Oil insider trading fears after volume spike precedes Axios Iran report (rinse, repeat)
• Bank of Canada head Macklem warns consecutive rate hikes possible if oil prices stay high
• Yen intervention risks failure as Iran war clouds Japan's currency defence
• RBNZ Gov Breman expects higher near term inflation and weak growth
• Bessent to raise weak yen with Japanese officials in Tokyo meetings next week
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 6 May Risk-on rally lifts stocks; oil falls on peace
• Axios - There's still a chance Trump could renew military action ahead of his China trip

Summary:

• Nikkei 225 surges 4%-plus to record high above 62,000, nearing 63,000, on return from Golden Week
• Iran peace deal optimism, JGB rally and tech/earnings gains drive the move
• Yuan hits strongest level vs dollar in more than three years; PBOC fixing firmest since March 2023
• AUD and NZD hold near highs on equity bull run and easing Middle East fears
• Oil price cooling pulling bond yields lower, lessening rate hike pressure regionally
• Trump social media post on jobs sparks chatter he may have seen strong NFP data early
• Australia posts first trade deficit since late 2017 at -$1.8bn in March; imports surge 14.1% month-on-month driven by data centre equipment up 204% and fuel up 54%; exports fall 2.7%
• U.S. equity futures little changed, consolidating near all-time highs

Japan's Nikkei 225 returned from its extended Golden Week break to catch up with the global equity rally that had built in its absence, bursting through 62,000 to fresh all-time highs and approaching the 63,000 level. The move, which extended more than 4%, was fuelled by a combination of Iran war de-escalation optimism, a rally in Japanese government bonds and solid corporate earnings, with tech names providing additional lift in a session that felt broadly risk-on across the region.

The Iran backdrop was the dominant theme. With Tehran expected to deliver its response Thursday to a U.S. peace framework and crude prices falling below $100 a barrel on Wednesday, markets moved to price a more benign outcome, pulling bond yields lower in the process and easing some of the rate hike pressure that has shadowed equities (to little effect!) in recent weeks. Analysts noted that economic, political and strategic constraints leave the U.S. strongly incentivised to preserve the ceasefire and pursue a negotiated resolution by late May or shortly after, adding that with no military solution readily available, de-escalation remains the most attractive pathway for Washington.

China's yuan rose to its strongest level against the dollar in more than three years, supported by the peace deal optimism and a robust PBOC fixing at 6.8487, its firmest since March 2023. The Australian and New Zealand dollars held near recent highs, with cooling oil prices and lower yields removing some of the worst-case inflation scenarios that had been weighing on the region's rate outlook.

Australia's trade data provided a jarring counterpoint to the optimistic mood. The country recorded its first trade deficit since late 2017, coming in at minus $1.8 billion in March as imports surged 14.1% month-on-month, driven by a 204% spike in data centre-related equipment and a 54% jump in fuel costs. Exports fell 2.7%. For the March quarter, import spending rose 2.5% while export revenue declined 1.2%, a combination that will draw attention to the structural shifts underway in Australia's trade account as the data centre investment theme accelerates.

In the U.S., equity futures traded near the flat line, consolidating around all-time highs ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report. A social media post from Trump striking an optimistic tone on the jobs market sparked regional speculation that he may have had early sight of a strong NFP print, though the chatter remained unverified.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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