How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

2026年7月17日最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

Rate hikes by year-end

• RBNZ: 52 bps (67% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)
• ECB: 42 bps (86% probability of no change at the next meeting)
• BoE: 37 bps (92% probability of no change at the next meeting)
• Fed: 26 bps (90% probability of no change at the next meeting)
• BoJ: 21 bps (95% probability of no change at the next meeting)
• BoC: 16 bps (88% probability of no change at the next meeting)
• RBA: 15 bps (80% probability of no change at the next meeting)
• SNB: 12 bps (89% probability of no change at the next meeting)
• Last week's market pricing here

We saw a hawkish repricing across almost all major central banks as the US-Iran crisis escalated and we got back to pre-ceasefire conditions. The Fed was the only exception, with rate hike expectations easing after surprisingly soft US inflation data reinforced the peak inflation narrative.

Looking ahead, the longer this situation drags on, the worse the impact on financial markets and the global economy will be. Everyone is waiting for the ultimate TACO to start piling back into risk assets, but nobody knows where Trump's pain threshold is. 

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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