Global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as flows through Hormuz resumed, but remained 9.4 million bpd behind pre-war levels – IEA
- IEA sees total world oil supply 860K bps lower than demand in 2026 (versus 920K bps lower prior)
- IEA sees world oil demand falling by 1 million bpd in 2026 (versus 1.1 million bpd prior)
- IEA says world oil supply to fall by 3.7 million bpd in 2026 (versus 3.9 million bpd prior)
- For 2027, IEA sees supply growth of 7.5 million bpd if Hormuz strait transits improve, demand growth of 2 million bpd
- Escalation of hostilities could upend the 2027 surplus outlook
The International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly narrowed its forecast for the global oil market deficit in 2026 in its latest monthly report, while warning that the outlook for 2027 remains highly dependent on developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
The agency now expects total world oil supply to average 860,000 barrels per day below demand in 2026, an improvement from its previous estimate of a 920,000 bpd shortfall.
Global oil demand is now forecast to decline by 1.0 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with the previous estimate of a 1.1 million bpd drop. On the supply side, the IEA expects world oil production to contract by 3.7 million bpd next year, slightly less severe than the previously projected decline of 3.9 million bpd.
Looking further ahead, the agency outlined a more optimistic scenario for 2027, assuming shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to normalize. Under that assumption, global oil supply is projected to increase by 7.5 million barrels per day, while demand is expected to grow by around 2.0 million bpd, resulting in a substantial market surplus.
However, the IEA cautioned that renewed escalation of hostilities in the Middle East could quickly derail that outlook. Any disruption to transit through the Strait of Hormuz or broader regional instability could significantly tighten global oil balances and eliminate the projected surplus.
The report noted that global oil supply rebounded sharply in June, rising by 4.1 million barrels per day as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed following recent disruptions. Despite the recovery, worldwide production remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels, underscoring the lasting impact of the conflict on global energy markets.
This article was written by flfeaa2662d774455a8d50fa77b791ed5f at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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