Gold avoids a complete breakdown on surprising US-Iran breakthrough as focus turns to FOMC

2026年6月16日最近のFX関連情報Commodities

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

After the surprising US-Iran breakthrough on Thursday, gold has erased all last week’s losses as traders pared back rate hike bets on expectations of lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns.

In the short-term, the focus continues to be on this new development, so we can expect the bullish bias to hold (all else being equal). Looking ahead, the FOMC decision tomorrow could be a major catalyst.

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the easing bias from the statement. At this meeting, we will also get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where inflation is expected to be revised higher while unemployment lower in the short-term. The focus will be mostly on the dot plot which is expected to show no cuts this year. All of this is expected and already priced in.

We can expect gold to get a significant boost if the Fed maintains the easing bias and/or one rate cut by year-end. The hawkish surprise could be the Fed signalling one or more rate hikes by year-end in which case we can expect gold to sink.

Looking ahead, the risk is that negative supply shock caused by the US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock as the conflict ends that boosts economic activity further requiring rate hikes anyway.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that gold avoided a complete breakdown after the surprising US-Iran breakthrough. The price has risen above the broken upward trendline opening the door for a bigger pullback into the major downward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the downward trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the rally into the 5,400 level next.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we have the 4,350 resistance zone and the minor downward trendline that the price will need to break to open the door for a bigger move into the 4,700 level next. The sellers will likely step in around the resistance and/or the trendline with a defined risk above the trendline to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for breaks to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline around the 4,700 level.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the price started the week with a positive gap and stalled at the resistance. The gap might act as support now. If we get a pullback into the 4,250 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 4,700 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see a break lower to pile in for a drop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.