Oil prices hover around pre-war levels as focus turns to the US data and the Fed
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Oil prices have finally reached the pre-war levels last week as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the US-Iran war triggered a quick unwinding of the bullish oil bets.
We got some minor strikes between US and Iran over the weekend but that’s just noise. The two sides are still committed to the ceasefire and to keep the Strait operational.
The bearish bias remains intact as traders continue to price in the increase in supply in the next months. Another bearish driver is the Fed’s tightening risk as that’s going to weigh on the demand side.
The upside risks in the short-term are mostly two. The first is that things between the US and Iran break down again and the Strait of Hormuz gets shut. The second is that the US activity data remains strong, but we see an easing in inflationary pressures which could translate into a more dovish view on the Fed and keep the downside in oil prices more limited on resilient demand.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil eventually reached the pre-war levels filling the 68.00-69.00 gap. This is going to act as support. We can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 78.00 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 55.00 handle next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will likely continue to step in around the support, while the sellers will either wait for a pullback into the 78.00 resistance or a break below the 68.00 support.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor resistance zone around the 73.00 handle where the price got rejected from several times in the past days. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 78.00 resistance next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow, we get the US Job Openings data and the US Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP report and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we conclude with the US NFP report, and the US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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