The USD is lower to start the new week as Iran deal dominates and leads the markets.

2026年6月15日最近のFX関連情報Technical Analysis

The USD is lower to start the week on the back of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. In the video above I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective to kickstart the North American session of the trading week. US stocks are sharply higher, yields are lower, crude oil is lower.

Of course there was the major breakthrough over the weekend as the United States and Iran have agreed to a peace deal, declaring the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts — including Lebanon. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who served as mediator throughout, made the announcement Sunday, with President Trump confirming the deal shortly after on Truth Social.

The agreement is structured as a Memorandum of Understanding, kicking off a 60-day formal negotiation period between the two sides. Critically, Trump confirmed the Strait of Hormuz will reopen upon signing — the single most important development for global oil markets after months of disruption.

But before we get too giddy, the two sides are already describing the terms differently. Iran says the next phase of talks depends on the US releasing frozen Iranian funds first. Washington is pushing back, saying no funds move until Iran implements its commitments. Iran's deputy FM also noted that last-minute military threats from Tehran "helped facilitate progress" — language that signals Tehran is entering these talks from a position it sees as one of leverage, not concession.

The war is effectively over — but the hard part of turning an MOU into a lasting agreement starts now.

Crude oil futures are down sharply. They are currently trading down $4.56 or -5.37% at $80.32. The low price reached $79.70. The high price was at $82.42. Looking at the daily chart, the price moved below its 100 day moving average last Friday (currently at a $86.71, and continued down toward the swing low reached on April 17 at $78.97. The low today fell short of that but to remain a key target to get to and through.. Below that watch $77.50 followed by the 200 day moving average at $73.41. The price just before the Epic Fury start to the war on February 28 was at $67.28.

Looking at the major US indices in premarket trading we gains are led by the NASDAQ index:

Dow industrial average is up 479 points
S&P index is up 94 points
NASDAQ index is up 636 points

In the U.S. debt market, Treasury yields are moving lower as investors shift their focus to Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. No change in policy is expected, but the meeting will mark Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair. According to a Wall Street Journal article published this morning, Warsh has long argued that the Federal Reserve talks too much and should spend more time analyzing the economy and less time signaling its future intentions.

As a Fed governor during the 2008–09 financial crisis, Warsh witnessed firsthand the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet through large-scale bond purchases and the increased use of forward guidance under Ben Bernanke. Since leaving the Fed in 2011, he has criticized both policies, arguing that the central bank became overly reliant on bond buying and excessive communication. Investors will be watching closely for any indication that he intends to move the Fed toward a more traditional, less transparent approach to policymaking.

For now, however, Warsh's ability to reshape the Fed's message may be limited. Inflation remains elevated, and recent Middle East tensions had pushed oil prices sharply higher, raising concerns about renewed price pressures. Yet one development may be working in his favor: crude oil has fallen sharply from its recent highs near $105 and is now trading closer to $80. That decline does not put rate cuts back on the table, but it does help ease concerns about additional inflation pressures and reduces the urgency for the Fed to consider raising rates sooner rather than later.

Other central bank decisions will announced by the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England.

Looking at the US yield curve: