Fed’s Daly: Businesses cautiously optimistic
Absence of immigration really matters, as does investment in technologies
Right now making up low labor force growth by higher productivity growth
Zero job growth might be new steady state
Heading toward zero labor force growth based on demographics
Outlook depends on how long rise in oil prices, how long conflict will persist
Those are strong pillars
Consumers nervous about economy, but spending
Businesses cautiously optimistic
Daly is leaning into the "structural" argument hard. When a Fed official starts talking about zero job growth being the "new steady state," your ears should prick up. She's essentially telling the market: "Don't freak out if the NFP numbers start looking ugly; it’s just the demographics, stupid." She is betting the farm on productivity. In her view, tech investment and AI aren't just buzzwords—they’re the only things keeping the lights on while the labor pool shrinks. It's a bold call. If productivity stalls but the labor market stays tight, that's a recipe for a wage-price spiral that keeps the Fed's foot on the brake for much longer.
Then there’s the elephant in the room: Oil. Daly admits the outlook is entirely hostage to how long this conflict persists but that's a rapidly declining risk given today's moves in markets. They see the "strong pillars" of the consumer, but they also see the gas station receipts.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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