What are the main events for today?
EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we get the preliminary inflation reports for France and Spain. They are both expected to rise given the increase in energy prices in August, but the focus will be on the core figures.
Nevertheless, the ECB has already pre-committed to a rate hike in September and signalled that there's less appetite to tighter further afterwards, so the market reaction might be muted, as the data won't change anything for near-term policy.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. After the Treasury buyback announcement and Bessent’s “verbal” intervention to suppress long-term yields, I think the only thing traders will be focused on is whether Fed Chair Warsh leans against the recent easing in financial conditions.
If he doesn’t, the current "debasement" trades like long precious metals, bitcoin and short US dollar will likely extend further. On the other hand, if he pushes back saying things like "recent easing in financial conditions, if sustained, could complicate the process of returning inflation to our target" or "if recent easing threatens progress toward price stability, we will not hesitate to respond appropriately" and so on, the market may retighten financial conditions and extend the pullbacks in the "debasement" trades.
Fed Chair Warsh is due to speak at 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET. The prepared remarks are typically released either moments before or simultaneously as the Fed Chair delivers his speech.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 12:45 GMT/08:45 ET - BoE's Mann (hawkish - voter)
- 13:00 GMT/09:00 ET - Fed's Hammack (hawk - voter)
- 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed Chair Warsh (neutral - voter)
- 15:40 GMT/11:40 ET - BoE Governor Bailey (neutral - voter)
- 15:55 GMT/11:55 ET - ECB's Schnabel (hawk - voter)
- 16:30 GMT/12:30 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (hawkish - non voter)
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