Nvidia’s stock does the limbo then the moonwalk on 2028 guidance
Nvidia's results underline how sensitive the stock has become to the gap between beating expectations and beating already sky-high ones, with an initial drop reflecting investor disappointment even after a solid quarter. The reversal came once management put concrete numbers behind the AI demand narrative, an unusually early and specific full-year guide that markets read as a strong signal of confidence. The suggestion that supply constraints, not demand, are the binding factor on growth points to continued tightness across the AI chip supply chain, with implications for suppliers and customers alike. The swing from a 3% loss to a 5% gain in the same after-hours session shows how quickly sentiment can turn on forward-looking commentary from management.
--- Nvidia's stock fell, then jumped, once investors realised the real story was next year's guidance, not this quarter's beat.
Summary:
- Nvidia posted better than expected second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings after Wednesday's close, but shares still slipped as much as 3% in after-hours trading on high investor expectations
- Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress told analysts on the earnings call that Nvidia now expects fiscal 2028 revenue growth of around 70%, well above the roughly 44% analysts had previously forecast
- Kress said demand is still accelerating even at Nvidia's current scale, and that customer forecasts point to growth roughly doubling next year, with the 70% figure reflecting supply constraints rather than a demand ceiling
- CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia has never before given guidance this far in advance, and that underlying demand growth is actually running above 70%, closer to 100%, with the outlook capped by current supply capacity
- Huang said that without supply constraints, the fiscal 2028 outlook would be considerably higher
- Nvidia shares reversed course to trade up as much as 5% in after-hours trading following the guidance
Nvidia shares swung from a loss to a gain in after-hours trading on Wednesday, as an initially underwhelmed market reversed course once executives laid out unusually bullish, and unusually early, guidance for the year ahead.
The chipmaker reported better than expected second-quarter results for fiscal 2027 after the US market closed, but the numbers were not enough to satisfy investors who had been braced for an even bigger beat. The stock fell by as much as 3% in the initial aftermath of the release.
That reaction shifted once Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress addressed analysts on the post-earnings call. Kress said Nvidia now expects revenue to grow by around 70% in fiscal 2028, sharply above the roughly 44% growth analysts had previously modelled. She told the call that demand is still accelerating even at Nvidia's current scale, and said customer forecasts point to growth effectively doubling next year. Kress added that the 70% figure reflects the limits of Nvidia's supply capacity rather than a ceiling on demand.
Chief Executive Jensen Huang went further on the call, noting that Nvidia has never previously issued guidance this far ahead of the fiscal year in question. Huang said actual demand growth is running above the 70% figure given, closer to 100%, and that the guidance provided is effectively capped by how much supply the company can bring online. He said that in the absence of those supply constraints, the fiscal 2028 outlook would be considerably stronger than the numbers presented.
The shift in tone from the call had an immediate effect on the stock, which reversed its early losses to trade as much as 5% higher in after-hours dealing. The move highlights how closely investors are now tracking not just Nvidia's current results but the durability of AI-related demand well into next year, at a time when questions about the sustainability of AI capital spending have weighed on the broader tech sector. With Nvidia effectively signalling that supply, not demand, is the binding constraint on its growth, attention is likely to turn to how quickly the company and its supply chain partners can scale capacity to meet an order book that, on management's own account, remains larger than what the current guidance reflects.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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