Oil catch up: Russia-Ukraine war keeps a floor under oil despite Hormuz optimism
Crude prices traded choppily through the session as traders weighed conflicting signals from the Middle East and Russia against a softer than expected build in US inventories. Sentiment shifted through the day, with talk of progress on a Strait of Hormuz arrangement pulling prices lower before reports of stalled Ukraine peace efforts and possible fresh Russian strikes helped both benchmarks pare losses. Vessel transit data through the strait remains well below pre-war levels, a reminder that any easing of the geopolitical premium is not yet reflected in actual shipping flows. With the smaller than anticipated crude build alongside larger draws in gasoline and distillates, the market is still finding some support from the demand side even as the supply risk narrative softens.
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Oil eased as hopes for a Hormuz shipping deal outweighed a smaller crude build and simmering Russia-Ukraine risk.
Summary:
- Brent settled down around 75 cents, or circa 0.8%, to about $88 a barrel; WTI settled down about 15 cents, roughly 0.2%, to around $82
- US crude inventories rose by a modest amount last week to about 429 million barrels, well below the increase analysts had expected, per EIA data
- Iran and Oman are finalising details of an agreement to share the Strait of Hormuz waterway and its revenues, though a senior Iranian official said it is not yet finalised
- Vessel transits through Hormuz have fallen to roughly a third of the recent ten-day average and remain far below pre-war levels
- Russia's NORSI refinery halted crude processing after a Ukrainian drone strike, while reports suggested Moscow may be weighing escalated missile strikes on Kyiv
- A US senator said he expects a sanctions bill targeting Russia to clear the House next month
Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday after a choppy session in which investors weighed progress in talks between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz against a smaller than expected rise in US crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures fell to settle at around $88 a barrel, down roughly 0.8%, while West Texas Intermediate eased to about $82, down close to 0.2%. Both benchmarks touched their lowest levels in more than two weeks during the session before paring losses.
Government data showed US crude inventories climbed by a modest amount in the week to August 21, to around 429 million barrels, well short of the increase analysts polled by Reuters had pencilled in. Gasoline and distillate stocks both drew down by more than forecast, pointing to firmer demand even as the crude build undershot expectations.
Much of the day's price action tracked developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are working through the details of an arrangement to share the waterway and its associated revenues, according to a senior Iranian source, after Iran's Revolutionary Guards indicated the two sides had reached broad agreement on the split. Analysts said the market has increasingly priced in a partial reopening and negotiated shipping arrangements rather than prolonged disruption, a shift that has removed some of the geopolitical premium built into prices in recent months. Still, actual traffic through the strait tells a more cautious story: only a handful of commodity vessels transited on Tuesday, well down from the recent ten day average and far below levels seen before the conflict began.
Wider diplomatic efforts also featured. Pakistan and Iran reported significant progress in talks aimed at de-escalation, and Qatar's prime minister was due in Tehran on Thursday for further discussions.
Offsetting some of the optimism, supply risk tied to the Russia-Ukraine war persisted. One of Russia's largest refineries suspended crude processing following a drone attack, and reports suggested Moscow was considering intensifying missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian infrastructure after concluding that negotiations had stalled. Separately, a US senator sponsoring a broad sanctions package aimed at Russia said he expects it to pass the House of Representatives next month, describing it as a significant blow to President Vladimir Putin's ability to fund the war. A Russian media report of a US-Iran ceasefire covering free navigation through Hormuz briefly pressured prices overnight before being walked back, underscoring how sensitive the market remains to headline risk from multiple fronts at once.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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