Citi lifts near-term gold target to $4,800, JPMorgan flags $5k
Citi’s upgrade and JPMorgan’s near-term trading range both point to a market still comfortable adding to gold exposure even after this year’s sharp rally, with the disagreement really centred on timing rather than direction. JPMorgan’s framing of PCE and Jackson Hole as the key swing factors puts real weight on this week’s data, since a hot inflation print would likely trigger a retest of the 200-day moving average while a cooler outcome combined with a market unconvinced by Warsh’s messaging could see gold approaching $5,000 within days rather than months. The reference to January’s $1,100 one-month move underscores how quickly sentiment can shift in this market, and the fact that gold has stayed firm despite a soft macro backdrop over the weekend suggests underlying momentum remains intact heading into the data.
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Two of Wall Street’s biggest desks agree gold still has room to run, they just disagree on whether it takes days or months to get there.
Summary:
- Citi raised its zero to three month gold price target to $4,800 an ounce on Monday and said the rally still had room to run, according to Reuters
- Citi kept its six to 12 month target unchanged at $5,000, citing an eventual easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a less hawkish Fed
- Separately, JPMorgan said the opaque Middle East backdrop and weekend tariff headlines have kept the macro risk premium elevated, with core PCE data and the Jackson Hole symposium this week seen as key catalysts
- JPM expects a relatively high PCE print and says markets have been reluctant to fully price out a September Fed move, leaving rates sensitive to any upside inflation surprise or shift in tone from Jackson Hole
- JPM sees gold trading in a $4,500 to $5,000 range for now, with a hot data print likely to trigger a retest of the 200-day moving average
- Said cooler inflation data combined with market scepticism over the Jackson Hole outcome could see gold trading closer to $5,000 within a week, pointing to January’s $1,100 one-month move as evidence such a swing is plausible
- JPMorgan noted that weaker data over the weekend has not dampened gold’s momentum, with prices still trading meaningfully higher on the day
Citi raised its zero to three month gold price target to $4,800 an ounce on Monday, saying the rally in bullion still has further room to run, according to Reuters. The bank kept its six to 12 month target unchanged at $5,000, pointing to an eventual easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a less hawkish Federal Reserve as the drivers that would sustain gold’s advance over that horizon.
The upgrade lands alongside a similarly constructive, if more near-term focused, view from JPMorgan. JPM flagged that the Middle East backdrop remains opaque and that tariff headlines over the weekend have kept the broader macro risk premium elevated, adding that a pause in positioning this week is understandable given the calendar. Core personal consumption expenditures inflation data and the Jackson Hole symposium are both due this week, and the desk described the PCE print as particularly important, with its own research team looking for a relatively high reading. It noted that markets have so far been reluctant to fully price out a September Federal Reserve move, leaving rates, and by extension gold, sensitive to any upside inflation surprise or to a shift in tone from Jackson Hole.
On positioning, JPMorgan said it sees gold trading in a range of roughly $4,500 to $5,000 in the near term. A hot inflation print, in its view, would likely trigger a retest of the 200 day moving average to the downside. But the desk said the opposite scenario, cooler than expected data paired with a market unconvinced by the outcome of the Jackson Hole speech, could see gold trading much closer to $5,000 within the space of a week. It pointed to gold’s roughly $1,100 move over the course of a single month back in January as evidence that a swing of that scale is well within the realm of possibility given how the market has behaved this year.
Also noted that despite the weaker data flow over the weekend, gold’s underlying momentum has not been dented, with prices still trading meaningfully higher on the day. Taken together, the two notes suggest gold’s next major move may hinge less on a change in the broader macro narrative, which both banks still read as supportive, and more on the sequencing of this week’s inflation data and central bank commentary, with the range between roughly $4,500 and $5,000 likely to define trading until that picture clarifies.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.