Bank of Korea rate call a coin toss as economists split on August hike

2026年8月25日最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

The near-even split among economists underlines how finely balanced this decision is, with the case for a hike resting on above-target inflation, strong semiconductor exports and housing market pressure, while the case for a pause rests on how sharply Korean bond yields have already tightened this year relative to the US. Given nearly all economists still expect the policy rate to reach 3.00% or higher by year-end regardless of what happens on August 27, the immediate market reaction may hinge more on the BOK's forward guidance than on the decision itself. A hold would likely be read as an acknowledgment of tightening financial conditions rather than a dovish pivot, while a hike would confirm the BOK is prioritising inflation and financial stability risk over the pace of bond market adjustment.

via Reuters poll and report.

Economists are almost evenly split on whether the BOK hikes this week, but nearly all of them agree it ends up at 3% or higher by year-end either way.

Summary:

Just over half, 18 of 35 economists polled by Reuters between August 18 and 24, expect the Bank of Korea to raise its base rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% on August 27, while 17 see no change at 2.75%
July's 25 basis point hike to 2.75% was the BOK's first in three and a half years, with the central bank signalling further tightening could follow amid stronger growth, above-target inflation and financial stability risks
Inflation eased to 2.8% in July from 3.2% in June but remains above the 2% target, while core inflation accelerated
Strong semiconductor exports and rising home prices are cited as additional support for another hike
Korean 10-year government bond yields have risen by more than 100 basis points so far this year, against a 55 basis point rise in the equivalent US yield, a key argument for those expecting a pause
Nearly all economists who gave year-end forecasts, 30 of 31, expect at least one more hike by then, taking the policy rate to 3.00% or higher, with median forecasts pointing to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2027

The Bank of Korea is on course to raise its base rate to 3.00% at its meeting on Thursday, August 27, according to a slim majority of economists polled by Reuters, though the decision is shaping up as a genuine close call. Of 35 economists surveyed between August 18 and 24, 18 expect a 25 basis point hike to 3.00%, while 17 forecast no change from the current 2.75% level.

July's quarter point increase to 2.75% marked the central bank's first hike in three and a half years, and the BOK signalled at the time that further tightening could be needed as economic growth strengthened, inflation stayed above target and financial stability risks persisted. Inflation has since eased to 2.8% in July from 3.2% in June, though it remains well above the BOK's 2% target, and core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, actually accelerated over the same period. Economists also point to strong semiconductor exports and rising home prices as factors reinforcing the case for a second hike.

Nomura's Asia economist Jeong Woo Park said the BOK's concern about inflation and financial stability risk, combined with recent strong growth, points to a further 25 basis point increase as policymakers stay focused on stabilising both consumer prices and the housing market. Not all economists agree that the case is clear cut, however. Barclays economist Bum Ki Son said the BOK's own communication has pointed toward a hike, but argued the central bank is likely to hold rates steady given how much financial conditions have already tightened. Korean 10-year government bond yields have climbed by more than 100 basis points so far this year, more than double the 55 basis point rise in the equivalent US Treasury yield, a divergence that has strengthened the argument for a pause even as underlying inflation pressure persists.

Regardless of what happens this week, the broader tightening path looks largely settled. Nearly all economists who provided forecasts through year-end, 30 of 31, expect at least one more rate increase by then, which would take the policy rate to 3.00% or higher, with only one economist expecting rates to remain on hold at 2.75%. Median forecasts show the BOK lifting rates further to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2027 before holding steady through at least the end of that year, a projection unchanged from the previous month's survey. That consistency suggests the August decision may matter less for the medium term rate path than for how it shapes market expectations around the timing and sequencing of the remaining moves.

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