Treasury yields dip but continues to probe the top of the range
There is something disquieting about a government fighting markets. There is a certain futility about it in large part because it rarely works. When it does work, it’s usually of the Mario Draghi “whatever it takes" variety and some dramatic actions. Treasury Secretary Bessent talking about $4 billion in shifting maturity buying is almost comically under-armed.
Now they’re floating using the Treasury general account but it’s starting to look like they don’t have a real plan. It goes back to Trump’s impulsiveness and you get the sense that he tasks deputies with impossible goals.
Reuters is just out with a poll showing Trump’s approval at 33% to match the lowest of his Presidency and the Iran war is increasingly unpopular as well. Just 31% approve of the war with 29% of Republicans disapproving.
The bond market senses a President that’s flailing on affordability and a Republican party that’s pandering to the polls (see the data center reversal).
The arbiter here is goign to be the bond market and a fresh rise above 4.75% would be ominous; and a climb above 5% calamitous. That doesn’t leave much room for error from here.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.