ICYMI – India gold imports double in July as WGC flags demand recovery
The doubling in India's gold import value points to a meaningful pickup in physical demand from the world's second-largest gold consumer, which should be read alongside rather than in isolation from the broader bullion rally driven by Fed rate expectations and US fiscal concerns already flagged elsewhere this week. A firmer India print ahead of the festive season adds a structural demand layer beneath the options-driven and macro-driven moves already at work in gold, potentially reinforcing support on pullbacks if seasonal buying continues to build. The narrowing but still-present discount of Indian domestic prices to landed cost suggests local supply, including recycled old gold, remains ample enough to keep price transmission orderly rather than triggering shortage-driven premium spikes. Given gold's own share of India's total merchandise imports remains modest relative to the January-March average, the currency and trade balance implications from this rebound look limited for now, even as it adds a bullish demand data point to the broader gold narrative.
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Earlier:
- ING says fiscal credibility fears drive gold back to above $4,600 an ounce
- ICYMI: Goldman says options demand could push gold past $4,900 forecast
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India's gold imports doubled in July, and the World Gold Council says every part of the market, jewellery, ETFs and futures, is pointing the same way: recovery.
Summary:
- Gold imports into India rebounded sharply in July, with import value rising to $4.16bn from $1.97bn in June, more than doubling month on month, according to the World Gold Council.
- Import volumes are estimated to have risen to 40-45 tonnes in July, up from 20 tonnes in June, following two consecutive months of weakness.
- Jewellery demand reportedly strengthened as consumers responded to lower, more stable prices, with retailers and manufacturers replenishing inventory ahead of the festive season.
- Indian gold ETFs recorded net inflows of INR15.6bn ($163mn) in July, with holdings rising by 1 tonne to 120 tonnes and total assets under management up 2% month on month to $18.1bn.
- Gold futures trading on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India picked up in July, with average daily volumes rising to 14.9 tonnes and turnover up 9% month on month.
- International gold prices rose 9% in the first two weeks of August to $4,391/oz, partially reversing June's sharp correction, with the rupee's appreciation limiting the rise in domestic prices.
Gold imports into India rebounded sharply in July, more than doubling in value from the previous month and signalling firmer physical demand ahead of the festive season, according to a market update from the World Gold Council. Import value rose to $4.16bn in July, up from $1.97bn in June, while import volumes are estimated to have increased to between 40 and 45 tonnes, roughly double June's 20 tonnes, following two consecutive months of weaker imports.
The Council, an industry association funded by gold mining and refining members that promotes gold as an investment and consumption asset, said the rebound reflected an improvement in underlying demand and inventory replenishment by manufacturers and retailers ahead of India's festive buying season. Recycled gold, largely from the exchange of old jewellery for new, continues to supplement supply, but the report said the import recovery points to genuinely stronger physical demand rather than simply reduced recycling. Despite the increase, gold's share of India's total merchandise imports remained relatively modest at 5%, compared with an average of 11% during the January to March period.
The import rebound came alongside broader signs of strength across India's gold market. Jewellery demand reportedly strengthened as consumers responded to lower and more stable prices earlier in the period, with deferred purchases returning to the market and manufacturers reporting higher order flows. Investment demand also remained steady, with gold ETFs continuing to attract inflows, albeit at a slower pace than in June. Net ETF inflows totalled INR15.6bn, or roughly $163mn, in July, a decline of 55% month on month, while total holdings rose by 1 tonne to 120 tonnes and assets under management increased 2% to $18.1bn. A further 57,000 new investor accounts were added during the month, taking the total to 12.53 million.
Futures market activity also picked up following a softer April to June period, with average daily trading volumes on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India rising to 14.9 tonnes, up from an average of 13.5 tonnes over the prior three months, and average daily turnover increasing 9% month on month to roughly $2.2bn. Even so, trading volumes remained 59% below January's peak and 8% below the equivalent period a year earlier, though turnover was 35% higher year on year, reflecting the impact of higher gold prices on traded value.
Underpinning the recovery was a broader rebound in gold prices themselves. International prices, measured by the LBMA Gold Price, rose 9% in the first two weeks of August to $4,391 per ounce, partially reversing a sharp correction in June, while domestic Indian prices gained nearly 7% to INR151,744 per 10 grams. The Council said the appreciation of the rupee against the US dollar partially offset the rise in international prices, limiting gains domestically. Domestic prices remain below import parity, with the discount narrowing to about $45 an ounce in mid-August from around $100 in mid-May and early June, though still above July's average discount of $34, a pattern the Council attributed in part to increased market supply from old gold exchanges.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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