investingLive Americas FX news wrap 21 Aug: Trump folds on beef tariffs.

2026年8月22日最近のFX関連情報ニュース

One of the more interesting stories in the North American session was President Trump’s apparent reversal on beef tariffs as the administration looks for ways to bring down sharply higher beef prices.

Go to a grocery store in the U.S. and a pound of ground beef can now cost around $10 for an 85/15 blend. Beef prices have risen much faster than overall food inflation, and like gasoline, beef is something American consumers buy in large quantities and notice immediately when prices rise.

That brings Brazil into the picture.

Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter. The Trump administration has used tariffs both to "generate revenue" and "protect U.S. producers" from foreign competition. They have not protected the US consumer as at the same time, the U.S. cattle herd has fallen. Drought, higher feed and energy costs, labor constraints (i.e. stopping of immigrants especially in farming) that by bad bad bad bad my office here but I have athe back back back back back back back back back back back back back back back and the expense of rebuilding herds have restricted domestic beef supplies. Demand has remained relatively strong, increasing the need for imported beef.

For Brazilian beef, once the applicable low-tariff quota is exhausted, imports have generally faced a 26.4% out-of-quota tariff.

Now Trump appears ready to remove that obstacle.

Trump announced that the U.S. would allow as much as 300,000 metric tons of additional ground beef imports over the next 90 days without triggering the 26.4% out-of-quota tariff. Trump also said the imported beef would help bring prices down by around 25%.

The numbers are hard to ignore: Trump is talking about prices potentially falling by roughly 25% while removing a tariff of 26.4% on the marginal imported beef.

Adding another piece to the puzzle, Brazil acknowledged that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke with Trump earlier in the day.

Connecting the dots, the U.S. needs additional beef supply. The domestic cattle herd is historically tight, rebuilding it takes years rather than months, and consumers are already dealing with elevated food and energy costs. Increasing imports offers the administration a quicker avenue for trying to bring ground-beef prices down.

That potentially puts Brazil, the world's largest beef exporter, in a strong position to supply some of that additional demand.

So, at least when it comes to beef, the tariff story may be coming full circle: tariffs were raised in part to protect domestic producers, but tight U.S. supplies and high consumer prices are now pushing the administration toward tariff relief to encourage more imports.

It also puts the inflation debate surrounding tariffs back into focus. Removing a 26.4% tariff specifically to facilitate cheaper imports and lower consumer prices illustrates the mechanism through which tariffs can raise the domestic cost of imported goods. That doesn't mean tariffs alone caused the surge in beef prices—the shrinking U.S. cattle herd and tight supply are major factors—but it does make the tariff itself part of the price equation, that all things being equal will reduce tariff income but should lead to lower imported prices to importers who are satisfying demand.

If domestic demand can not be met by domestic supply and tariffs are imposed on imported goods, imported inflation will make it's way into prices.

Looking at other economic news today,

Canada’s June retail sales came in stronger than expected, rising 0.6% versus the 0.4% forecast, while May was revised higher to +1.1%. Sales excluding autos increased 0.5%, also slightly above expectations, while sales volumes rose a solid 1.5%. The underlying details were generally positive, with core retail sales rising 1.2% for a second consecutive month, led by general merchandise and clothing-related retailers. Motor vehicle and parts sales rose 1.0%, while gasoline station sales fell sharply. Regionally, sales increased in seven provinces, led by Ontario, while Alberta posted the largest decline. Looking ahead, Statistics Canada’s advance estimate points to another 0.8% increase in July, suggesting consumer spending maintained momentum into the third quarter.
The S&P Global flash PMI data for August pointed to stronger overall U.S. economic activity, despite manufacturing coming in below expectations. Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.2 versus 53.9 expected, but remained comfortably above the 50 expansion threshold. The strength came from services, where PMI jumped to 56.8 versus 54.0 expected, lifting the composite PMI to 56.0 from 54.5. All three measures remain in expansion territory. S&P Global characterized U.S. business activity as the strongest in more than four years, with the surveys pointing to annualized Q3 growth approaching 3% versus 1.5% in Q2. Employment also improved, although supply disruptions and elevated price pressures remain risks. Overall, the report suggests growth momentum has shifted from manufacturing toward the much larger services sector.

The better economic data, the increasing budget deficits, and the insatiable demand for capital by private companies to fund AI expansion are contributing factors despite the US Treasuries actions this week. On Wednesday,Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised markets this week by doubling the size of Treasury’s long-term bond buybacks, increasing the maximum purchase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

The key points:

Treasury will increase purchases of 10-year and longer-dated securities.
The larger buybacks are scheduled to begin in September.
Bessent indicated that the $4 billion amount could be increased further if needed.
The purchases primarily target older, less-liquid Treasury securities.
Buying those bonds provides support to prices and can put downward pressure on longer-term yields.

The amounts themselves are relatively small compared with the overall Treasury market. However, the announcement caught markets by surprise because it signaled that Treasury may be willing to become more active at the long end of the yield curve.

Importantly, this is not Fed quantitative easing (QE). Treasury is managing its existing debt rather than creating money to purchase securities. Still, the prospect of larger Treasury purchases helped push long-term yields lower at least temporarily, and contributed to the sharp selling pressure on the U.S. dollar. Yields today, however, did move back to the upside and yields are also higher on the week. A snapshot of the market shows:

2-year: 4.240%, +5.5 bps
5-year: 4.426%, +3.9 bps
10-year: 4.736%, +3.8 bps
30-year: 5.276%, +3.9 bps

For the trading week:

2 year yield rose 6.9 basis point
5 year yield rose 6.6 basis points
10 year yield rose 4.4 basis points
30 year yield rose 1.5 basis points

The U.S. dollar is ending the week mostly lower against the major currencies, with the Swiss franc the only currency against which the greenback gained on the day.

The biggest USD declines came against the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar rose 0.82%, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.52%. The Canadian dollar also strengthened, with the USD falling 0.18% against the loonie.

Elsewhere, the moves were more modest. The Japanese yen gained 0.08%, while the euro and British pound were little changed, rising 0.01% and 0.03%, respectively. The USDs only advance was a 0.10% rise against the Swiss franc.

The mostly weaker finish caps a difficult week for the dollar, highlighted by the sharp midweek decline following the Treasury's decision to expand its long-dated bond buyback program.

US stocks rose to end the week but for the week, the major indices fell. For the trading day:

Dow Industrial Average is closing up 518.05 points or 0.98% at 53282.32
S&P is closing up 33.17 points or 0.43% at 7674.32
Nasdaq index is closing up 113.29 points or 0.43% at 26180.45
Russell 2000 is up 25 443 points or 0.85% at 3017.87
NASDAQ 100 is up 95.69 points or 0.33% at 29308.86.

For the trading week:

Dow industrial average -0.85%
S&P -1.43%
Nasdaq index -2.05%
Russell 2000 -1.64%
Nasdaq 100 -2.45%

Gold benefited from the lower dollar this week and today. The precious metal rose $84.21 or 1.86% to $4602.66. Silver was also higher with a gain of $0.88 or 1.30% at $68.95.

Bitcoin had its best week since March of 2023 with a gain of 25% to $78,640. The price surged by an additional 7.76% today.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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2026年8月22日最近のFX関連情報ニュース

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