Once the world’s top gold buyer, Russia’s central bank now a steady seller

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The scale of the drawdown, 1.6 million ounces since January, values reserve losses at 33.7 billion dollars over seven months, underscores how far Russia's fiscal position has deteriorated as weaker energy revenue forces the government to lean on its sovereign wealth buffers. The mirror mechanism through which the central bank offsets these transactions means the gold sales are effectively a proxy for the scale of the Finance Ministry's own drawdown from the National Wellbeing Fund, making the pace of decline a useful real time gauge of Russian budget stress. For global gold markets, the shift removes a buyer that was once the single largest sovereign source of demand, though the volumes involved are modest relative to overall central bank buying trends currently supporting prices elsewhere, notably in China and Poland.

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Earlier:

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Info via Bloomberg overnight.  Russia's central bank has gone from the world's biggest gold buyer to a steady seller, and Bloomberg data shows the reserve drawdown accelerating.

Summary:

  • Bank of Russia gold holdings fell by 1.6 million ounces since the start of the year to 73.2 million ounces as of August 1, the lowest level since January 2020
  • The value of the bank's gold reserves declined by 33.7 billion dollars over the seven month period
  • Russia's central bank was once the world's largest sovereign gold buyer, purchasing much of the country's mined output before pausing acquisitions in early 2020
  • A pledge to resume buying in 2022 helped absorb some gold supply that Russia struggled to export under sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, though large scale purchases never resumed
  • The central bank began reducing its gold holdings last year as the Finance Ministry sold bullion and foreign currency from the National Wellbeing Fund to help cover budget shortfalls tied to weaker energy revenue
  • Under a mirror mechanism, the central bank conducts matching domestic market operations to offset the impact of those government transactions on the ruble and financial system

The Bank of Russia's gold reserves have fallen to their lowest level in more than six years, according to Bloomberg, as the central bank continues to sell bullion to help offset a widening budget shortfall. Central bank data published Thursday showed holdings dropped by 1.6 million ounces since the start of the year to 73.2 million ounces as of August 1, the smallest amount since January 2020. The value of those reserves fell by 33.7 billion dollars over the same seven month period.

The decline marks a striking reversal for an institution that was once the world's largest sovereign buyer of gold, regularly purchasing much of Russia's domestically mined output before pausing acquisitions in early 2020. Two years later, a pledge to resume buying helped absorb part of the gold supply Russia struggled to export as sanctions took hold following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg. Large scale purchases never resumed, however, and the central bank shifted into net seller territory last year.

Bloomberg reported that the shift is tied directly to Russia's fiscal position, with the Finance Ministry selling gold and foreign currency from the National Wellbeing Fund to help plug budget shortfalls caused by weaker energy revenue. Rather than simply liquidating reserves independently, the central bank carries out matching operations in the domestic market under what is known as a mirror mechanism, designed to offset the impact of the Finance Ministry's transactions on the ruble and the broader financial system.

The steady drawdown illustrates the extent to which lower energy income has strained Russia's public finances, forcing the state to tap assets that were built up during a period of sustained gold accumulation. With reserves now at levels last seen before the pandemic, the pace of further sales will likely remain a closely watched signal of how much additional pressure Russia's budget faces as energy revenues continue to underperform.

Someone's still buying ;-) 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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