Iran plans oil strikes to hurt Trump before midterms, official says
The plan as described would target the two main routes shippers have used to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah terminal, which together handle roughly 5.5 million barrels a day. Combined with a push to fully shut the roughly 5 million barrels a day still moving through the strait via the US backed shadow fleet, a successful campaign would remove a significant share of the alternative capacity that has kept some Gulf oil flowing despite the broader blockade. Given Brent is already trading near 93 dollars a barrel on existing tensions, any credible move against Yanbu or Fujairah would likely be read by traders as a materially larger supply shock than the disruptions seen so far, given the scale of volumes involved and the lack of comparable bypass capacity elsewhere in the region.
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Earlier:
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Iran is reportedly betting that higher pump prices, not more missiles, are the fastest way to hurt Trump politically.
Summary:
- A senior Iranian official in Tehran says Iran is systematically preparing economic warfare aimed at damaging Trump’s presidency and costing his party the November midterms
- The plans reportedly include strikes on Gulf oil terminals to destroy the remaining bypass routes around the Strait of Hormuz, namely Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu and the UAE’s Fujairah, which together move about 5.5 million barrels a day
- Iran is also said to be targeting the support network behind the US backed shadow fleet operating in the strait, aiming to cut its roughly 5 million barrels a day flow to zero
- The official describes the intended chain of effect as running from crude prices to pump prices, with a two to four week lag, then into CPI and voter sentiment, with the economy cited as voters’ top issue with under three months to the midterms
- Majid Shakeri, an adviser to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Iran must raise tensions around oil before the midterms and framed any action as pre-emptive rather than a response to a future US economic attack
Iran is systematically preparing a campaign of economic warfare intended to damage President Donald Trump’s standing ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to a senior Iranian official in Tehran familiar with the planning. The official described a strategy centred on oil markets, aimed at using higher energy prices to erode support for Trump and his party in the run-up to the vote.
Central to the plan, according to the official, are strikes targeting Gulf oil terminals that have served as bypass routes around the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. The two facilities named are Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu pipeline terminal on the Red Sea and the UAE’s Fujairah terminal outside the strait, which together handle an estimated 5.5 million barrels a day of crude that has continued moving despite the broader disruption to Hormuz traffic. Alongside this, the official said Iran is also targeting the support network sustaining the US-backed so-called shadow fleet still operating within the strait itself, with the aim of cutting its roughly 5 million barrels a day of flow down to zero.
The official laid out what was described as a direct operational chain linking the strategy to the US political calendar: a rise in crude prices feeding through to pump prices at the pump within two to four weeks, then into consumer price inflation, and ultimately into voter sentiment. With the economy already registering as voters’ top concern and less than three months remaining before the midterms, the official suggested the timing of any escalation was designed to maximise its political impact in Washington.
Majid Shakeri, an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, offered a similar rationale in comments framing the strategy as both timely and justified. “Iran must raise the tension level, focused on oil, before the midterms, and fortunately America handed over the necessary pretext," Shakeri said. He added that Tehran would not wait passively for an anticipated US economic offensive, describing any Iranian action as “a preemptive defense" rather than a first strike. Shakeri has previously argued publicly that Iran’s best strategy is to avoid both open war and a settlement with the current US administration, instead managing a prolonged state of neither war nor peace until it achieves its aims, a position that suggests the oil-focused pressure campaign fits within a broader long-game approach to outlasting Trump’s term.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.