Preview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today’s decision

最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

TD Securities’ base case of an RBA hold at 4.35% aligns with broad consensus and with OIS pricing that shows close to zero probability of a hike today, meaning the meeting itself carries limited surprise risk for AUD or rates markets. The more relevant signal for positioning is likely to come from the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy, where TD Securities expects the RBA to resist sharply downgrading its inflation forecasts despite the softer than expected trimmed mean CPI print, citing elevated oil prices as an ongoing upside risk to the inflation outlook. That combination, a confirmed pause alongside a cautious rather than dovish forecast revision, points to a relatively contained market reaction, with any surprise more likely to come from the tone of the forecast language than from the rate decision itself.

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Earlier:

TD Securities sees a straightforward RBA hold today, with the real point of interest being whether the Bank downgrades its inflation forecasts despite softer recent data.

Summary:

  • TD Securities expects the RBA to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, matching broader market consensus.
  • The bank says the RBA remains in a “pause and observe mode", citing restrictive policy settings, slowing activity particularly in housing, and the lagged effects of earlier hikes still working through the economy.
  • A lower than expected Q2 trimmed mean CPI reading has given the RBA room to pause, with OIS markets pricing close to zero probability of a hike today.
  • The RBA will release updated economic forecasts in its August Statement on Monetary Policy alongside today’s decision.
  • TD Securities does not expect a sharp downgrade to the RBA’s inflation forecasts, pointing to elevated oil prices as a continuing upside risk to the inflation outlook.

TD Securities expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at today’s meeting, a call that matches broader market consensus and leaves limited room for surprise in the decision itself.

In a note to clients, the bank said the RBA remains in what it describes as a pause and observe phase of the cycle. TD Securities pointed to three factors behind that stance: policy is already viewed as restrictive, activity is slowing in response to earlier rate hikes, with housing showing particular sensitivity, and the full effect of those earlier increases has yet to be fully felt across the economy. Against that backdrop, the bank said a softer than expected trimmed mean CPI reading for the second quarter has given the RBA additional room to hold steady this month. OIS markets are pricing close to zero probability of a hike at today’s meeting, TD Securities noted, underscoring how settled expectations already are heading into the decision.

Beyond the rate call itself, TD Securities flagged that today’s meeting will also bring updated economic forecasts via the RBA’s August Statement on Monetary Policy. Here the bank sees more scope for a market reaction than in the widely anticipated hold. TD Securities said it does not expect the RBA to sharply downgrade its inflation forecasts despite the softer recent CPI print, arguing that elevated oil prices continue to pose a meaningful upside risk to the inflation outlook that should keep the central bank from turning too dovish in its language.

Taken together, TD Securities’ preview points to a relatively low drama outcome on the headline rate decision, with the more informative signal likely to come from how the RBA frames its forecast revisions rather than from the decision itself. Any hawkish surprise in that language, driven by the oil price risk TD Securities highlights, would be the more likely source of market movement out of today’s meeting. 

  • The decision is due Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 2:30pm Sydney time (04:30 GMT, 12:30am US Eastern), with Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference following an hour later at 3:30pm Sydney time (05:30 GMT, 1:30am US Eastern)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

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