Gold stays supported amid Middle East de-escalation, but the US CPI could erase the gains
FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Gold continues to extend gains as the de-escalation in the Middle East and
the hopes for a US-Iran deal reduced inflation and Fed tightening risks.
Barring another escalation, the upside should remain supported. The next
test will come next week with the release of the US CPI report. The data will
be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in gold, with traders increasing
rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, will reduce further the risk
of Fed tightening and give gold another boost.
We also have the US NFP report today, but it’s unlikely to be as important
as the CPI because the Fed is not focused on the labour market. A slight miss
or beat shouldn’t change the big picture, but an increase in wage growth could
give the doves second thoughts.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold extended the gains into new highs as the major trendline around
the 4,500 level comes in sight. If the price gets there, we can expect the
sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a
drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,800 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price pulled back and bounced near the broken resistance-turned-support.
If the rally extends, we can expect the sellers to step in around the 4,382
resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the
4,200 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here but if the price pulls back into the 4,200 support
again, we can expect the buyers to step in to keep pushing into the 4,382
resistance, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop
into the 3,885 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today, we conclude the
week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.