investingLive Americas FX news wrap: Everyone back in the AI boat
- US June factory orders -0.3% vs +0.2% expected
- JOLTs job openings 7.359M vs 7.400M estimate. Lower than last month.
- Rubio: There’s been progress on reopening Strait. Nothing final but hoping agreement will happen very shortly
- Canadian manufacturing PMI hits a four-year high
- Fed’s Paulson: For me, the vote was not a close call
- Canada June trade balance +3.86B vs +3.0B expected
- US International Trade balance for June -$73.3B vs -$73.0B estimate
- Fed’s Paulson: Underlying inflation is too high
- Al Arabiya: expects an announcement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
- Iran may allow Europe to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz
- US State Dept: Latest Lebanon-Israel talks began today and will continue through Aug 6
Markets:
- Gold up $27 to $4080
- US 10-year yields down 5.7 bps to 4.63%
- WTI crude oil down $4.61 to $75.73
- AUD leads, JPY lags
- S&P 500 up 2.0%
- Nasdaq Comp up 2.8%
It’s been the perfect storm for stock markets this week and it was on full display on Tuesday with some huge gains, led by AI chip names. What’s driving it:
- The collapse of Situational Awareness has given the all-clear on the 'bottom’
- Mag7 earnings are over and they were convincing enough that there will be a positive ROI on the AI capex, with no slowdown coming
- Chipmaker earnings this week are going to be impressive
- TACO time on Iran with non-stop talk of a deal and the oil market believing it
- FOMO with no identifiable risks until the Sept FOMC
The market is showing no fear with AMD up 8% ahead of earnings today. On the macro side, the numbers were fine today and the market doesn’t seem to care that the bottom of the K-shape isn’t improving, as McDonald’s earnings showed today. It’s an AI boom and it’s morphing (or has already morphed) into an AI mania. Numbers from Caterpillar today showed the wealth is spreading somewhat and the market is confident there is more to come.
In FX, the market isn’t sure what to do about the US intervening in USD/JPY but the dip buying continued despite comments from Bessent.
In terms of oil, it was down big again today as the Hormuz headlines came from a variety of sources. It’s a tough deal to make though and some skepticism is certainly warranted given the backdrop.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.