Crude oil rebounds on mixed US-Iran messages as weekend risk keeps prices underpinned
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Crude oil opened the week with a big negative gap after Trump called off the planned strikes on Iran claiming they reached the perimeters of a deal that would include the immediate and complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz. He added that this ceasefire is subject to being able to make a deal rapidly.
The good news is that Trump continues to follow the same old “escalate to de-escalate” strategy which limits the upside in oil prices. The bad news is that Iran denied Trump’s claims and confirmed that the strait remains closed.
Without further de-escalation and confirmations of positive talks, oil prices will likely drift back higher and accelerate into the weekend on risks of surprise US attacks.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil dropped again back to the support zone around the 78.00 handle. The buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers will need the price to break below the support to open the door for a move into the 68.00 support next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price might now consolidate between the 78.00 support and the 87.00 resistance. The market participants will continue to play the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either side.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the price action will likely remain rangebound until we get another fresh US-Iran development. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today, we get the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we have the US ADP and ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. The US-Iran developments will remain in focus.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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