US June PCE inflation 3.7% vs 3.7%% expected. Core 3.3% vs 3.3% expected
- Prior PCE 4.1%. Core prior 3.4%
- Headline PCE YoY for June 3.7% vs 3.7% est
- Core PCE YoY for June 3.3% vs 3.3% est
- Headline MoM -0.1% vs -0.1% est. Last 0.5% (revised up from 0.4%)
- Core MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% est. Last 0.3%
- PCE Ex food and energy 0.1% vs 0.3% last month
- PCE Services Price excluding Energy and housing 0.1% vs 0.5 Last month
The Fed Chair Warsh said the 2% target is the PCE the Fed is still looking at and the statement said that “Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.".
That 2 % is not going to be reached for some time. The Core YoY is at 3.3%. It is the lower than headline at 3.7%.
Looking at the last 12 montth, MoM it seems like it might be 6, 7, 8 months before we start to get closer to 2% assuming that inflation remains tame (0.1% MoM) over that time period.It is possible, but oil prices would need to come down and stay down. Otherwise, the risk is that oil prices start to cause a creep higher vs a creep lower. Of course, we could also go into much slower growth which would upset the apple cart and get inflation down faster.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.