The USD is mostly lower to kickstart July 30 trading in the NA session

2026年7月30日最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

The USD is mostly lower vs the major currencies with the the USDJPY (-0.30% USD), AUD (-0.35%) and the NZD (-0.76%) leading the way. The greenback fell sharply after the Fed kept rates unchange yesterday and Chair Warsh sounded like he supported the markets decision to take rates higher between decisions, and the Fed would be the follower during "benign times" (i.e. non-crisis times). Today, the GBP is little changed (+0.07%) after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged with a 6-3 vote (estimate 7-2) in favor of a hike.

The Bank of England acknowledged that the economic impact of the recent energy price shock remains uncertain and emphasized that monetary policy cannot directly influence energy prices. Instead, policymakers said the appropriate policy response will depend on how large and persistent the shock proves to be.

While officials warned that the risks to inflation are tilted to the upside—particularly if elevated energy prices lead to broader wage and price pressures—they noted there is currently little evidence of meaningful second-round inflation effects. Given the uncertainty, especially surrounding developments in the Middle East, the Bank judged it appropriate to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. However, it reiterated that it stands ready to act if necessary to ensure inflation returns sustainably to its 2% target over the medium term.

On the dissent by Greene, Pill, and Mann, it was noted that:

"These members were less reassured on the underlying disinflationary process, were concerned that second-round effects could be material, and thought it relevant that inflation had exceeded the 2% target for more than five years. For these members, uncertainty about how the conflict would evolve remained high, and so a risk management strategy was appropriate. They believed that a proactive increase in Bank Rate would reduce the probability of second-round effects setting in. Further, research found that setting policy as if there were stronger second-round effects and course correcting if needed, would prove to be less costly than vice versa."

For the USDJPY it finally cracked below a trend line and the 200 hour MA opening the door for sharp declines. In the video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD- and outline the bias, the targets and the risks.

US yields are continueing the run higher in trading today:

2 year 4.247%, up 1.0 basis points
5 year 4.385%, +3.3 basis points
10 year 4.667%, +4.5 basis points
30 year 5.196%, up 5.5 basis points.

The US stock indices are higher in pre-market trading after tumbling yesterday as the markets digested the Fed Warch comments:

Dow +156 points
S&P +32 point
Nasdaq +304 points

After the close yesterday

Lam Research (LRCX):BEAT – Adjusted EPS $1.82 vs. $1.68 expected; Revenue $6.722B vs. $6.665B.. Current price +8.75%
Fortinet (FTNT):BEAT – Adjusted EPS $0.90 vs. $0.75; Revenue $2.05B vs. $1.89B. Current price +10.87
Carvana (CVNA):BEAT – EPS $0.42 vs. $0.38; Revenue $7.38B vs. $6.89B. Current price -9.98%
L3Harris Technologies (LHX):BEAT – EPS $3.13 vs. $2.80; Revenue $5.88B vs. $5.81B. Current price -4.21%
Robinhood Markets (HOOD):BEAT – EPS $0.62 vs. $0.43; Revenue $1.31B vs. $1.28B. Current price +0.86%
Starbucks (SBUX):BEAT – Adjusted EPS $0.85 vs. $0.66; Revenue $9.30B vs. $9.17B. Current price +6.15%
Arm Holdings (ARM):BEAT – Adjusted EPS $0.45 vs. $0.40; Revenue $1.29B vs. $1.26B. Current price 0.67%
Microsoft (MSFT):BEAT – Adjusted EPS $4.74 vs. $4.24; Revenue $90.0B vs. $87.62B. Current price +9.96%
Meta Platforms (META):MIXED – EPS Missed ($6.18 vs. $7.19); Revenue Beat ($60.8B vs. $60.22B). Current price -9.43%
Qualcomm (QCOM):MIXED – Adjusted EPS Missed ($2.21 vs. $2.23); Revenue Beat ($9.95B vs. $9.68B). Q4 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.05–2.25 also came in below the $2.36 consensus. Current price -5.58%

Beat: 8
Mixed: 2 (Meta, Qualcomm)
Missed (EPS & Revenue): 0

This morning:

Yum! Brands (YUM):BEAT – EPS $1.62 vs. $1.58 expected.
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY):BEAT – EPS $2.04 vs. $1.59; Revenue $12.97B vs. $11.75B.
Quanta Services (PWR):BEAT – EPS $4.24 vs. $3.31; Revenue $9.6B vs. $8.61B.
KKR:BEAT – EPS $1.63 vs. $1.43; Revenue $5.73B vs. $5.09B.
Hershey (HSY):BEAT – EPS $1.90 vs. $1.43; Revenue $2.79B vs. $2.63B. Guidance above expectations.
Valero Energy (VLO):BEAT – EPS $12.54 vs. $10.13; Revenue $44.5B vs. $39.5B.
Regeneron (REGN):BEAT – EPS $14.29 vs. $10.21; Revenue $4.29B vs. $3.82B.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH):MIXED – EPS Beat ($0.48 vs. $0.39); Revenue Missed ($2.64B vs. $2.65B). FY EPS guidance below expectations.
Trane Technologies (TT):BEAT – EPS $4.31 vs. $4.27; Revenue $6.35B vs. $6.20B.
Xcel Energy (XEL):MIXED – EPS Beat ($0.93 vs. $0.79); Revenue Missed ($3.12B vs. $3.54B).
CRH:BEAT – EPS $2.21 vs. $1.99; Revenue $10.8B vs. $10.7B. Guidance raised.
Cigna (CI):BEAT – Operating EPS $7.78 vs. $7.60; Revenue $71.6B vs. $70.14B. Raised 2026 outlook.

Summary: