USDCHF stretches toward resistance but stalls and moves lower.
The USDCHF extended its rally today, reaching a high of 0.82045 before running into sellers. As highlighted in prior videos and posts, the next major upside target came in between 0.8211 and 0.8214. That zone is defined by the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the early-2025 high at 0.8211 and the June 2025 swing high at 0.82145. Today's high stopped just 7–10 pips shy of that resistance before the pair rotated lower.
The pullback has taken the price to around 0.8185. So, what comes next?
Part of today's reversal reflects modest U.S. dollar selling as Treasury yields edge lower. Combined with overhead technical resistance, that has allowed sellers to gain some traction. However, they still have work to do. The first downside target comes in at 0.8170, the low of the 2025 swing area. Below that, traders will focus on the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.81649. A move below both levels would strengthen the sellers' case and shift the near-term bias more to the downside.
Until then, buyers still hold the technical edge, and the path of least resistance remains higher.
Fundamentally, yesterday's Bloomberg report suggesting the Swiss National Bank is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.00% through the end of 2027 continues to provide longer-term support for the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc through interest-rate differentials. On the U.S. side, markets are also weighing the possibility that the Federal Reserve could maintain a tightening bias if inflation pressures prove persistent.
That outlook will become much clearer tomorrow following the FOMC policy decision. Traders will be watching not only the rate announcement but also Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments for any indication of whether the Fed is leaning toward additional tightening or signaling a more neutral policy stance.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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