Nasdaq analysis shows another 1,000 points down (see video)
Global markets are confronting sharp cross-asset turbulence as Asia leads a steep risk-off move, with South Korea’s Kospi extending its decline to 10% after breaking key technical support.
As Adam Button at investingLive.com noted, this sudden double-digit slump is spilling into broader global risk sentiment just ahead of a critical monetary policy decision where the FOMC preview signals potential realized volatility under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s unscripted meeting framework.
Meanwhile, precious metals are reacting to shifting geopolitical dynamics as gold tests its major daily downward trendline near the $4,200 resistance level amid Middle East ceasefire headlines, according to Giuseppe Dellamotta from investingLive.com.
On the US equity side, Greg Michalowski at investingLive.com highlighted that heavy semiconductor profit-taking continues to pressure technical structures, with the Nasdaq pulling back toward its 100-day moving average at 24,733 while the S&P 500 slides below trendline support.
Nasdaq analysis: Why futures may have another 1,000 points to fall
Nasdaq futures may be heading toward the 27,000 area after breaking below an ascending channel and an important anchored VWAP. That is the main scenario presented by Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive.com, but it is not a certainty. A daily close above the key invalidation area near 28,560-28,575 would challenge the bearish premise.Key takeaways from this Nasdaq futures analysis
- The main scenario targets the 27,000 round-number area, approximately 1,000 points below the market level discussed in the video.
- Nasdaq E-mini futures have broken below a rising price channel on the daily chart.
- Price is also trading below an anchored VWAP that was near 28,572 when the analysis was recorded.
- A daily close above approximately 28,560-28,575 would invalidate the central bearish premise.
- This is market orientation, not a recommendation to sell Nasdaq futures at the current price.
Why the Nasdaq chart currently looks bearish
The first warning comes from the break below the ascending channel visible on the daily Nasdaq futures chart. This channel had helped define the market’s upward trend from the earlier low toward its two recent all-time-high tests.
Nasdaq futures initially produced what looked like a possible false breakdown, with price briefly moving below the channel before recovering. The subsequent decline has been more convincing. A sequence of bearish daily candles pushed price below the channel and kept it there, indicating that the earlier upward structure has deteriorated.
A channel breakdown does not guarantee that the market will continue falling. However, while price remains outside the former channel, the daily structure favors the bears more than the bulls.
Anchored VWAP adds another bearish signal
The second important signal is the anchored volume-weighted average price, or anchored VWAP. This indicator shows the average price paid since a selected market turning point, adjusted for trading volume.
At the time of the video, the anchored VWAP was close to 28,572, while Nasdaq futures were trading near 27,940. Price had previously fought around this VWAP and briefly crossed it several times, but the latest breakdown has placed the market clearly below it.
When price trades below an important anchored VWAP, it can indicate that buyers who entered during the measured period are increasingly under pressure. The VWAP may then become resistance if the market attempts to recover.
Why 27,000 is the main Nasdaq downside scenario
The lower standard-deviation band associated with the anchored VWAP was situated near 26,780. Instead of treating that more precise level as the initial target, the video identifies the psychologically important 27,000 round number as the more practical bearish objective.
From the market price near 27,940 discussed in the analysis, a decline toward 27,000 would represent approximately another 940 points. That is the basis for the view that Nasdaq futures may have close to another 1,000 points to fall.
The July 27 low near 27,939 is an immediate reference. A break below that low could attract short-term sellers, but it could also produce a liquidity sweep and temporary rebound. For that reason, the loss of the low should not automatically be interpreted as a safe place to enter a new short position.
What would invalidate the bearish Nasdaq outlook?
The bearish scenario is conditional. Markets are dynamic, and future price action may introduce information that changes the analysis.
The clearest invalidation would be a daily close above approximately 28,560-28,575, around the anchored VWAP discussed in the video. An intraday move above the level would be less convincing because price can briefly cross resistance before falling back below it.
A daily close carries more weight because it shows that buyers maintained the recovery through the end of the full trading session. Re-entering the broken ascending channel would provide further evidence that the bearish breakdown has failed.
Therefore, the scenarios can be summarized as follows:
- Main bearish scenario: Nasdaq futures remain below the broken channel and anchored VWAP, keeping the 27,000 area in view.
- Early warning for bears: Price recovers toward the anchored VWAP and begins holding above nearby resistance during the session.
- Bearish invalidation: Nasdaq futures achieve a daily close above approximately 28,560-28,575 and begin repairing the broken daily structure.
Why traders should avoid chasing the Nasdaq decline
Even when the wider chart looks bearish, selling directly into an established low can offer poor risk-to-reward. Markets frequently move below an obvious low to trigger stop orders, attract breakout sellers and collect liquidity before rebounding.
A trader with a bearish view may therefore prefer to wait for a recovery, observe whether a lower high develops, and then evaluate whether resistance is holding. The video mentions the possibility of looking for a retracement entry, but it deliberately does not present a complete trading plan with a defined entry, stop and position size.
This distinction matters: having a directional opinion is not the same as having a suitable trade.
Nasdaq weakness ahead of major technology earnings
The decline may also be providing information about investor positioning ahead of further large technology earnings, including Meta and other Nasdaq-heavy companies.
Weakness before these reports does not prove that the earnings reactions will be negative. It may, however, suggest that traders are reducing risk, expectations remain demanding, or the market has become less willing to reward otherwise solid results.
The reaction after each earnings announcement will still matter more than the headline numbers alone. Strong results followed by continued selling would reinforce the idea that expectations were already too high. Conversely, positive earnings reactions that lift Nasdaq futures back above the invalidation zone could weaken the bearish market message.
Practical Nasdaq outlook for traders and investors
The daily and four-hour Nasdaq futures charts do not yet show a convincing long setup in this analysis. The dominant structure remains bearish while price is below the broken rising channel and the anchored VWAP near 28,560-28,575.
The primary scenario is therefore a continuation toward 27,000, with the lower anchored-VWAP deviation near 26,780 providing a secondary reference if selling accelerates.
However, this remains an opinion rather than a guaranteed forecast. The bearish thesis must be reassessed if Nasdaq futures recover and produce a daily close above the stated invalidation area.
Trade and invest at your own risk. This analysis is provided for market orientation and educational purposes only. It may be incorrect, and every trader should conduct independent research, use appropriate position sizing and define risk before entering any position.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.