The Nasdaq remains skewed to the downside amid the US-Iran crisis
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
The Nasdaq has been mostly rangebound this month as the US-Iran crisis brought back inflation and growth risks. This has also happened amid overcrowded tech positioning which has led to deleveraging across the board.
Last week’s soft US inflation data helped limiting the downside as the peak inflation narrative got stronger and we got a dovish repricing in Fed interest rates expectations, which reduced the Fed tightening risk. Nonetheless, the situation in the Middle East is weighing on sentiment as there are good chances of things getting worse before they get better.
The focus will stay on US-Iran headlines, especially this week with nothing on the agenda. The upside in the Nasdaq will remain limited, and the bearish pressure might even increase the longer the war drags on. It goes without saying that a ceasefire would be positive for the stock market, while a full-scale war would open the door for new lows.
NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see the Nasdaq recently bounced from the 28,800 support. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the support to position for a rally back into the 30,900 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 26,500 level next.
NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish structure. If the price pulls back into it, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a break below the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the resistance next.
NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback into the major downward trendline. We can expect the buyers to continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to pile in for a drop into new lows. The red lines define average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Flash US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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