The USD is mixed vs the major currencies. In the kickstart video, I outline the key technical levels in play
The USD is mixed to little changed vs the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. In the video above, I speak to the technicals that are helping to drive the price action for each. All traders should understand the bias, the risk and the targets for trades. I define those levels for each and explain and show why from a technical perspective in the video. Kickstart the North American session by understanding the roadmap.
Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s proposal to cut VAT on household energy bills is already facing scrutiny over how it will be financed. The government had indicated the roughly £850 million annual cost would be covered by cancelling the UK’s Digital ID program, but former Treasury minister Darren Jones argued the project was never funded in the first place, leaving a potential hole in the government’s fiscal plans.
The disagreement marks an early political challenge for Burnham just days into office, with investors likely to watch closely for more details in the upcoming budget. While UK gilt markets have remained relatively calm so far, questions over fiscal discipline and government spending could become a larger theme if a clear funding source is not identified.
On the economic front, the UK labor market delivered a mixed report, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.9%, slightly better than the 5.0% expected. Employment growth surprised to the upside, rising by 147,000 in May, but June payrolls slipped by 4,000, extending the modest decline seen this year. Wage growth continued to cool, with total earnings slowing to 4.3% and regular pay holding at 3.4%. Overall, the data suggest the labor market is gradually softening but not enough to force an immediate policy response from the Bank of England, especially with renewed energy price pressures adding to the inflation outlook.
Germany’s July ZEW survey showed improving optimism about the economy, with the expectations index jumping to 26.3 from 10.5, its strongest reading since February and well above forecasts. Current conditions remained deeply negative at -77.6, highlighting that businesses are still facing a difficult environment. The improvement reflects stronger domestic demand and better prospects for exporters, but confidence continues to be tempered by uncertainty surrounding the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and higher oil prices. The data reinforce expectations that the ECB will remain focused on inflation risks while monitoring whether the recovery can withstand geopolitical headwinds.
In the US, late yesterday President Trump announced a new 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports, citing what the administration called discriminatory Canadian trade policies toward U.S. automobiles, dairy products, and alcoholic beverages. The tariffs, imposed under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, are scheduled to take effect on August 19 and apply to a broad range of goods, although energy, potash, fish, critical minerals, and products already covered by Section 232 tariffs are exempt.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the move as a violation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, arguing that Canada’s previous trade measures merely matched earlier U.S. actions. Carney said Canada remains prepared to negotiate a resolution and modernize the trade agreement, while emphasizing that his government will take whatever steps are necessary to protect Canadian workers, businesses, and families. Markets have begun to refocus on the potential economic impact as trade tensions between the two countries escalate.
The Middle East conflict intensified overnight as Iran launched retaliatory attacks against U.S. military sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan following another round of U.S. strikes on military targets in southern Iran (but I thought their military was destroyed). Iran also claimed responsibility for attacks on infrastructure linked to U.S. interests, while two commercial tankers were reportedly hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels threatened to expand the conflict by imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the risk of further disruptions to global energy supplies.
Despite the escalation, negotiations for a 10-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran are continued to be brokered by Pakistan. Markets continue to balance the rising geopolitical risks against hopes that diplomacy can prevent a broader regional conflict.
- Crude oil prices are trading up $1.37 at $83.80.
- Gold is trading up $45 or 1.13% have $4054.60.
- Silver is trading up $2.25 or 4% have $58.74
- Bitcoin is trading up $971 and $66,304
Looking at the premarket four US stocks, the futures are implying higher levels
- Dow industrial average +130 points
- NASDAQ index +360 points
- S&P index +22 points
Looking at the US that market, mixed a two-year down 0.6 basis points at 4.208%. The 10 year is up 0.3 basis points at 4.601%..
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.