Israel believes Iran moved nuclear centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain
A confirmed US strike on a hardened, deeply buried nuclear site would mark a significant escalation beyond the strikes on shipping and conventional military targets seen so far, and would likely be read by markets as raising the risk of a broader, more prolonged conflict rather than a step toward de-escalation. Given Pickaxe Mountain’s depth and fortification, any attack would also raise questions about the effectiveness of strikes against it, potentially prolonging uncertainty rather than resolving it. Oil and safe haven assets would be the most direct channels for any market reaction, alongside further pressure on already stretched Gulf shipping risk premia.
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Israel believes Iran has hidden thousands of centrifuges deep inside Pickaxe Mountain, and Trump has now named the site as a possible target as pressure builds for a wider campaign against Iran’s nuclear program.
Summary:
- Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges into tunnels inside Pickaxe Mountain last fall, after the 12 day war in June
- Israel passed the intelligence to the US, and Trump has said the US is prepared to attack the site
- Trump called Pickaxe a possible target for “a nice big fat shot" in a July 13 interview, the first time he named it explicitly
- The site, known as Mount Kolang in Iran, has been under US and Israeli surveillance for years and is estimated to reach 300 to 450 feet underground
- A think tank on nuclear nonproliferation said sustained truck traffic, tunnel reinforcement and new security perimeters point to continued activity at the site
- Iran has denied the IAEA access to Pickaxe Mountain and provided no information about work there, according to the agency
- Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons but has produced roughly 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched to 60%, near weapons grade
Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep inside Pickaxe Mountain last fall, according to the Wall Street Journal (gated), a development that would heighten concerns Tehran could reconstitute its nuclear program. Israeli and US officials say the centrifuges were transferred to the site after the 12 day war in June, when American and Israeli strikes hit Iran’s three main nuclear facilities.
Israel passed the intelligence to Washington as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed President Trump to resume all out attacks on Iran to further set back its weapons program. The US has stepped up strikes over the past 10 days, and Trump has said Washington is prepared to attack Pickaxe Mountain, calling it a possible target for “a nice big fat shot" in a July 13 interview, the first time he named the site explicitly.
Known as Mount Kolang in Iran, Pickaxe has been under US and Israeli surveillance for years and was built as an underground replacement for a centrifuge assembly facility damaged in a 2020 explosion. Experts estimate the complex reaches 300 to 450 feet beneath solid rock, and a nuclear nonproliferation think tank said sustained truck traffic, tunnel reinforcement and new security measures point to steady activity at the site over the past 15 months.
Pickaxe was not a priority target in earlier rounds of conflict, but officials and experts have long worried Iran could use its tunnels to store or build nuclear equipment. Iran has denied the International Atomic Energy Agency access to the site and provided no information about its work there, the agency has said, while Iran maintains it has never sought nuclear weapons despite having produced roughly 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched to near weapons grade levels.
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.