Goldman Sachs note hints China’s real gold accumulation may be much more than double official numbers
Goldman Sachs' estimates point to central bank gold demand running well ahead of what official reserve figures capture, with China's actual purchases potentially several times the reported numbers. The bank says this accelerating buying, concentrated heavily in China, should act as a price floor even as gold faces near term pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve pricing. Goldman continues to frame elevated central bank accumulation as a multi-year structural trend tied to reserve diversification away from dollar assets, anchoring its $4,900 per troy ounce end-2026 price forecast. With private portfolio allocations to gold still low, the bank sees room for demand to broaden beyond central banks to private investors if geopolitical risks continue to build, keeping the medium term price skew to the upside.
Earlier:
--- China's gold buying may be running at nearly five times what the official numbers show, according to Goldman Sachs.
Summary:
- Goldman Sachs estimated China acquired more than 48 tonnes of gold in May via the London OTC market, its biggest monthly purchase in over a year
- That figure is 4.8 times larger than the official 10 tonnes reported by China's central bank for May, according to Goldman Sachs
- China's central bank officially added 15 tonnes of gold in June, its largest monthly purchase in at least two and a half years and its 20th consecutive month of reserve increases
- Applying a more conservative 2.0 times ratio to China's officially reported year-to-date increase of 40 tonnes implies actual 2026 purchases closer to 80 tonnes, per Goldman Sachs
- Goldman Sachs' nowcast puts total central bank gold purchases at 81 tonnes in May, or 67 tonnes per month on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, versus a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes
- Goldman Sachs said strong central bank buying should provide a price floor for gold amid near-term pressure from hawkish Fed pricing, and maintained its forecast of average monthly central bank purchases of 50 tonnes in 2026 and 40 tonnes in 2027
China's true pace of gold accumulation is running far ahead of what official figures suggest, according to new estimates from Goldman Sachs. The bank calculates that China acquired more than 48 tonnes of gold in May through the London over the counter market, the largest monthly purchase in over a year and nearly five times the 10 tonnes officially reported by the People's Bank of China for that month.
The gap between estimated and reported purchases extends to the year as a whole. China's central bank has officially raised its gold reserves by 40 tonnes so far in 2026, including a 15 tonne addition in June that marked its largest monthly purchase in at least two and a half years and its 20th consecutive month of reserve growth. Applying a more conservative 2.0 times multiplier to that year-to-date figure, rather than the roughly 4.8 times ratio implied by the May data, still suggests China may have accumulated closer to 80 tonnes of gold in total this year.
Goldman Sachs said the broader picture, captured in its central bank gold nowcast, shows purchases running at 81 tonnes in May and 67 tonnes per month on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a pre-2022 average of just 17 tonnes a month. The bank attributed much of the recent re-acceleration to China and said the trend is likely to provide a price floor for gold even as the metal faces near-term pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve rate expectations.
Goldman continues to describe elevated central bank gold buying as a multi-year trend rooted in reserve diversification, as central banks hedge against geopolitical and financial risk. The bank pointed to the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 as the anchor for emerging market diversification and for its $4,900 per troy ounce end-2026 gold price forecast, maintaining its assumption of 50 tonnes of average monthly central bank buying in 2026 and 40 tonnes in 2027. While near-term headwinds could persist if markets price in potential Fed hikes, Goldman's own economists expect no such hikes this year, and the bank said medium-term price risks remain skewed to the upside given how little exposure private portfolios currently have to gold.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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