Recap – Crude surges as Saudi Arabia comes under attack and Iran blockade returns
Crude built gains through the session and surged into the close as the conflict widened on multiple fronts at once, with the reinstated blockade compounding fears already stirred by direct attacks on Saudi territory. The scale of the single day move, the largest for both benchmarks in weeks, points to a market pricing in a real risk of sustained disruption through the Strait of Hormuz rather than a brief flare up. Traders are focused less on the blockade’s stated exemption for neutral transit and more on how many tankers actually choose to move through the strait once it takes effect. With Washington now also flagging a possible strike on a fortified nuclear site, the risk premium embedded in prices looks unlikely to unwind quickly.
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A blockade, an airport strike and a nuclear site threat, all in one session.
Summary:
- Brent settled up around 9.6% at circa $83 a barrel and WTI up around 9.4% at circa $78, the biggest single day gains for both benchmarks in months
- The moves came after US CENTCOM said it had completed fresh strikes on Iran over the weekend in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump confirmed the US would reinstate a naval blockade of Iran from 2000 GMT on Tuesday, adding Washington would take a 20% cut on cargo transiting the strait as a security fee
- Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport was attacked and an explosion was reported in Jeddah, after Saudi forces struck an airport in Yemen to stop an Iranian jet landing
- Iran’s top military command said it would not allow Washington to manage the strait and would confront any unauthorised transit attempt
- Late in the session Trump warned of further heavy strikes and said the US may target a hardened underground nuclear facility near Natanz, sending oil higher still
Oil surged to its highest level in a month on Monday as the conflict between the United States and Iran widened sharply across several fronts, capping a session that began with steady gains and ended with a sprint into the close. Brent settled up around 9.6% at circa $83 a barrel, according to a Reuters report, while WTI settled up around 9.4% at circa $78, with both benchmarks posting their largest single day dollar gains in months and settling at levels not seen since mid June.
The rally was set in motion after US CENTCOM said over the weekend that it had completed a fresh round of strikes on Iran, in response to Iranian action against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Momentum built further when Trump confirmed the US would reinstate a naval blockade of Iran, effective 2000 GMT on Tuesday, adding that the strait itself would remain open regardless of Iran’s stance but that Washington would take a 20% cut on all cargo shipped through it as payment for security. The US Navy led Joint Maritime Information Center later confirmed the blockade covers Iran’s entire coastline and all vessels regardless of flag, a scope wider than the version lifted back in mid June.
The conflict also spread visibly onto Saudi soil, with an attack on Abha International Airport in the south of the country and a reported explosion in Jeddah, after Saudi forces struck an airport in Yemen to prevent an Iranian jet from landing. Iran’s top joint military command responded by saying it would not allow Washington to manage the strait and would confront any transit attempt made without its authorisation, while the UN’s shipping agency separately pushed back on the idea of tolls for international strait passage.
Prices pushed higher again late in the session after Trump warned of further heavy strikes and said the US may target a hardened underground nuclear facility near Natanz, describing the site as currently inactive but one Washington would strike once activity resumes. With tanker traffic already thinning as tensions rose through the day, the market is left pricing a conflict that shows little sign of containment heading into Tuesday’s blockade deadline.
Inside Trump’s head.
This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.