investingLive Americas FX news wrap 9 Jul

最近のFX関連情報

Overnight, Washington adopted a much more confrontational stance toward Iran, raising concerns that the recent ceasefire and diplomatic efforts were unraveling. President Trump said he believes the Iran ceasefire is effectively “over" and suggested the memorandum of understanding (MoU) is no longer viable. He described continued negotiations with Tehran as “a waste of time," although he added that U.S. negotiators could continue talks if they wanted to.

The president’s comments came after a series of escalating events, including Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. retaliatory strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets. Trump also said he no longer wants to deal with Iran, calling its leaders “a bunch of liars," marking a notable shift away from diplomacy and toward a harder-line approach.

The headlines sparked an immediate risk-off reaction in financial markets. Crude oil prices surged on concerns about potential supply disruptions, while U.S. equity futures and government bonds came under pressure. The U.S. dollar strengthened as investors sought safety, and currency markets quickly repriced the increased geopolitical risk.

In other news, the Fed minutes from the June meeting were announced. The minutes had a little for everyone in the health of the discussion, but the overall bias was more hawkish.

Some of the hawkish takeaways were:

  • Inflation risks remain the primary concern. Participants generally saw upside risks to price stability as elevated, while risks to employment had eased.

  • Concern that inflation could become entrenched. Several officials warned that years of above-target inflation could begin influencing inflation expectations, wages, and pricing behavior.

  • Some participants favored a rate hike now. A few argued there was a case for raising the federal funds rate at this meeting, although they ultimately supported holding rates steady.

  • Policy may not be restrictive enough. Several participants said current policy is not restrictive, suggesting additional tightening could be needed.

  • AI-driven growth could keep inflation elevated. Strong AI investment was seen as boosting economic growth beyond potential, adding persistent inflationary pressure through technology demand and electricity usage.

  • Middle East tensions and tariffs remain inflation risks. Participants cited geopolitical risks, tariffs, and AI-related demand as reasons inflation could stay above target.

  • Further tightening remains on the table. If inflation does not move back toward 2%, almost all participants agreed that additional policy firming would likely be warranted.

  • Fed dropped easing language. Most participants preferred removing wording that implied an easing bias, signaling a more neutral-to-hawkish policy stance.

The more dovish takeaways included:

  • Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. Most participants said medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the Fed’s 2% objective.

  • Many still expect inflation to decline. Officials discussed scenarios where inflation gradually returns to 2%, allowing rates to eventually remain unchanged or move lower.

  • Businesses remain cautious on pricing. Several districts reported firms were reluctant to pass through higher costs for fear of hurting demand or losing market share.

  • AI could eventually reduce inflation. While AI is boosting demand today, participants also noted productivity gains from AI should eventually lower production costs and increase supply.

  • Housing remains a source of disinflation. Slowing housing services inflation was viewed as an ongoing force helping reduce overall inflation.

  • Labor market risks have moderated. Participants noted downside risks to the Fed’s employment mandate have eased somewhat compared with earlier in the year.

The bottom line.

The minutes leaned more hawkish than dovish. While the Committee kept rates unchanged, the discussion emphasized that inflation risks remain elevated, several officials questioned whether policy is restrictive enough, and the removal of prior easing language reinforced that rate cuts are no longer the default expectation. At the same time, officials still see a path for inflation to return to target, particularly if housing disinflation continues and AI-driven productivity gains begin to offset today’s demand pressures.

Reviewing the markets, US stocks opened lower and moved lower, with the Nasdaq falling by -292 points at session lows, the S&P trading down -82.04 points, and the Dow falling by as much as -855.08 points. By the close of the day, the Nasdaq extended to up 77.38 points and closed up 51.96 points, or 0.20%.

The S&P and the Dow were not so fortunate and did not get out of negative territory. The major indices recently have seen rotational moves into the Dow stocks and out of the Nasdaq. That was not the case today, with traders favoring Nasdaq stocks over the Dow 30. Looking at the losers in the Dow 30, they were led by:

  • American Express — $336.32 — -3.79%
  • Sherwin-Williams — $330.64 — -3.40%
  • Boeing — $224.83 — -2.96%
  • P&G — $148.40 — -2.85%
  • Home Depot — $336.21 — -2.61%
  • JPMorgan Chase — $330.62 — -2.54%
  • Merck & Co. — $125.99 — -2.23%

Some of the bigger gainers today were names that have been punished more recently:

  • Nebius Group — $216.48 — 10.91%
  • CoreWeave — $90.00 — 7.75%
  • Super Micro Computer — $28.17 — 7.31%
  • Sandisk — $1,727.18 — 6.77%
  • Baker Hughes — $57.58 — 5.71%
  • Broadcom — $388.69 — 4.83%
  • Seagate Technology — $860.02 — 3.91%
  • NXP Semiconductors — $283.81 — 3.90%
  • NVIDIA — $204.12 — 3.65%

Looking at the USD, the greenback was mixed at the start, with the NZD and CAD higher but the other currencies lower vs. the USD. At the close, the major indices remain mixed and mostly lower, but with a different view. Versus the major currencies, the USD was:

  • Lower vs. the EUR by -0.14%
  • Higher vs. the JPY by 0.23%
  • Lower vs. the GBP by -0.37%
  • Unchanged vs. the CHF
  • Lower vs. the CAD by -0.25%
  • Lower vs. the AUD by 0.12%
  • Lower vs. the NZD by 0.49%

Technically,

  • The EURUSD is technically trading near the high for the day at 1.1431. The current price is trading at 1.1425, just below its 100-hour moving average at 1.14275. That moving average will be a key barometer in the new trading day.
  • The USDJPY is trading within a swing area between 162.39 and 162.51. In the short term, that area will help define the bias in the new trading day. A trade above 162.51 would be more bullish, with traders looking toward the 40-year high price reached last week at 162.833. A trade below the 162.40 level and we could see a rotation back down toward the 2024 high price at the 161.95 area.
  • The GBPUSD is trading near its highs and, in the process, is testing key technical levels defined by the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April high at 1.3399, the 200-day moving average just below that level at 1.3396, and the 100-day moving average just above that level at 1.34003. The current price is trading at 1.3401.
  • The AUDUSD traded above and below its 100-hour MA at the high of 0.69349 and the 200-hour MA at the low of 0.6915. The current price is at 0.6937, just above the higher 100-hour MA, tilting the bias to the upside.
  • The NZDUSD, after the RBNZ hike, retraced the gains from the rate decision and hawkish comments. However, the low in the North American session stalled ahead of the rising 200-hour MA at 0.5679 and has moved back above its 100-hour MA at 0.5696 too. The current price is at 0.5706, which is a more bullish tilt technically. The high for the day at 0.5719 is the next target, followed by last week’s high at 0.5726. The 50% midpoint of the move down from the mid-June high comes in at 0.5744. It would take a move below the 200-hour MA at 0.5679 to tilt the bias in favor of the sellers.

In the US, a strong 10-year note auction did not help the selling bias. At the end of the day, the 10-year is trading at 4.577%, up 4.8 basis points. The two-year yield is at 4.211%, up 4.99 basis points.

Crude oil prices are trading up near four dollars at $74.56. Gold is trading lower by $25 at $4,075.54. Silver is trading down $1.61 at $58.25, and bitcoin is trading lower at $62,173.

This article was written by fl932d6e52a19643278e0f123bca7198f5 at investinglive.com.

最近のFX関連情報

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