ING: China’s domestic demand engine sputtering despite stronger headline PMI
The bounce in new export orders to 50.1 offers some near-term support for China-exposed cyclical assets, but ING’s call for second-quarter GDP to slow to 4.6% year-on-year signals the headline PMI beat is unlikely to shift the broader growth narrative. The ex-factory price index slipping back into contraction at 48.2 is the more market-sensitive data point, raising fresh deflation concerns after a year of gradual reflation and adding to the case for further PBOC easing in the second half. Markets will increasingly position around July’s Politburo meeting as the next catalyst, with ING seeing room for monetary easing via the reverse repo rate but downplaying the likelihood of large-scale fiscal stimulus given the policy focus on growth quality over quantity.
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ING says China’s June PMI beat at 50.3 doesn’t change its view that a second-quarter slowdown to 4.6% GDP growth is still likely, with weak domestic demand likely to keep pressure on Beijing for further stimulus.
Summary:
- China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, beating market and ING forecasts of 50.1 and returning to April’s level
- New orders hit a three-month high of 51.2, export orders moved back into expansion at 50.1, and production rose to 51.4, according to ING’s analysis of the subindices
- The ex-factory price index fell back into contraction at 48.2, its first sub-50 reading in six months, a development ING flags as a potential warning sign that deflation risk has not been fully resolved
- The raw materials purchase price index remained in expansion at 54.2 but fell for a third consecutive month as energy prices declined
- Non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.2, beating expectations for a drop back below 50, supported by a rebound in new orders to 48.0 and business expectations rising to a five-month high of 55.3
- ING forecasts second-quarter GDP growth will slow to 4.6% year-on-year, with retail sales and fixed-asset investment both showing negative growth despite Beijing’s strategic pivot toward domestic demand
- ING sees scope for further PBOC easing in the second half of the year and expects markets to focus on July’s Politburo meeting for stimulus signals, though a large-scale package looks unlikely
China’s manufacturing activity edged higher in June, but ING said the improvement does not represent a meaningful turnaround and a second-quarter economic slowdown remains likely, according to a research note from the bank’s economic and financial analysis division, as reported by Reuters.
The official manufacturing PMI recovered to 50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, slightly beating consensus and ING’s own forecast of 50.1. ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, said the subindices showed broadly positive signs, with new orders reaching a three-month high of 51.2, export orders moving back into expansion at 50.1, and production edging up to 51.4.
The price data told a more mixed story. The ex-factory price index moved back into contraction at 48.2, its first sub-50 reading in six months. ING described this as a sign that a deflation trend, masked this year by reflationary pressure partly tied to the Iran conflict’s effect on input costs, may not have been fully overcome.
Non-manufacturing activity edged up to 50.2, beating expectations for a slip back into contraction and matching a ten-month high, driven by a rebound in new orders and a rise in business expectations to a five-month high of 55.3.
Despite the headline beat, ING maintained its forecast for second-quarter GDP growth to slow to 4.6% year-on-year. The bank flagged persistent weakness in domestic demand, noting that retail sales and fixed-asset investment are both showing negative growth despite Beijing’s stated pivot toward a domestically driven growth model, attributing some of this to payback from earlier frontloaded consumption and to investment caution amid external uncertainty.
ING expects markets to focus on July’s Politburo meeting for stimulus signals, though it considers a large package unlikely given the policy focus on growth quality. The bank sees room for further PBOC easing in the second half of the year as part of a broader effort to stabilise the economy.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.