USDCAD is another pair trying to correct but buyers are reluctant to give up control
The Canadian men’s national team has reached the World Cup’s “Sweet 16" — officially the Round of 16. Canada’s 1-0 victory over South Africa on June 28, 2026, secured a place in the knockout stage for the first time in the nation’s history. Oh, Canada.
Unfortunately for Canadian dollar bulls, the soccer success hasn’t translated into support for the loonie. The USDCAD is trading near the session high at 1.4209 (lower CAD), with the low for the day only reaching 1.4176. Sellers need to generate more downside momentum if they hope to regain control from buyers, who have driven the pair sharply higher from the May 1 low at 1.35492 to last week’s double-top high at 1.4247, reached on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Technically, last week’s double top gave sellers the green light to push the pair lower. They succeeded in driving the price below its 100-hour moving average on Friday and have managed to keep the pair mostly below that level since then.
The problem for the bears is that the rising 200-hour moving average, currently at 1.4169, has yet to face a serious test. In fact, the pair has not traded below the 200-hour moving average since May 29. A break below that level — and more importantly, staying below it — is needed to give sellers greater confidence and finally put meaningful pressure on buyers, who have been relentless during the move higher. Until then, the upside may be dulled a bit, but the buyers are still holding onto most of the control.
On the topside, if buyers can reclaim and hold above the 100-hour moving average at 1.4206, the focus would shift back toward last week’s double-top high at 1.4247. A break above that level would take the pair to its highest level since April 2025 and open the door toward the next major target: the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2025 high to the 2026 low at 1.42928 (see chart below).
Oh, Canada!, but their is work to do for the currency to show the strength of the football team. PS the US will play Bosnia on Wednesday to punch their ticket to the Round of 16.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.